Skip to content
日本語
Back to dashboard
Cross-cutting 🌐🇯🇵🇺🇸🇦🇺🇮🇳

Revenue Models

MIXI earns through six models: gacha/IAP, subscriptions, advertising, betting (take-rate and public competitions), IP licensing and sports; fees and regulation set the margin on each. Sports is now the largest segment, while full-year operating and ordinary profit guidance still implies a decline. App fees are set separately in Japan, the EU, the US and Brazil; the statutory alternative routes are barely used, and web-only assortment is still barred. US prediction markets face several Supreme Court petitions and mass state enforcement, and Australia is enforcing self-exclusion ahead of its reform law. A rising weight of chance-driven revenue carries addiction and youth-protection stakes in equal measure.

●Fresh Updated 2026-09-25 Next review 2026-10-25 189 Sources
Region:

Recent updates

  1. 2026-10-03
    Review pass: Google's new rates also reached Japan on 30 September (new installs only), Apple's EU terms took effect on 1 October, and the bitbank sale completed on 1 October. … Corrected the 28 September Supreme Court conference claim (response now due 9 November), an unsupported AI attribution and a scale comparison. Added that Monster Strike's Android fee cut arrives slowly because it follows install dates.
  2. 2026-10-03
    Repair pass: confirmed that B.PREMIER's 2026-27 season opened on 22 September and updated the facilities finding. … Re-verified on the FTC case page that the Genshin Impact settlement stands unchanged. Added a dated source for Google's new rates reaching Japan in September, and aligned the prediction-market user count across languages.
  3. 2026-10-03 Consistency fix: corrected the Japan start of Google's Epic-settlement rates from 'by 31 December' to the brought-forward 30 September (f-pol-009 to f-pol-021).
Earlier updates · 5
  1. 2026-09-25 Changes in September: the prediction-market fight widened to several Supreme Court petitions (New Jersey, Crypto.com, Robinhood) and mass state enforcement (Connecticut, Missouri, New York's suit against Polymarket). The NFL banned prediction-market ads and the CFTC issued mention-market guidance. US August betting fell below last year. In Japan the consumer agency's interim report was finalised on 10 September, and MCF called Apple's bar on web-only content unlawful.
  2. 2026-09-05 Through July 2026: At MIXI, use of the Monster Strike Web Shop reached just under 50% in Oct-Dec 2025 without any in-app link steering. On the market, Sensor Tower's Q2 2026 puts consumer spending on games at US$19.2bn, down 4.5% year on year and below non-gaming apps at US$24.4bn (+14.6%). In Q1 FY2027 (Apr-Jun 2026) revenue was ¥47.07bn (+50.3%) and Sports became the largest segment at ¥21.67bn (+94.5%), while the only guidance revision was net profit (¥13.5bn to ¥25.0bn), which rests on a one-off gain from the bitbank share sale due to complete around October 2026. Operating profit of ¥19.5bn and ordinary profit of ¥20.0bn were left unchanged, still implying -12.4% / -19.0% year on year. NPB's owners agreed on 16 July to study a non-prediction baseball lottery, though the players' union's agreement, legislation, consultation and match-fixing safeguards all remain open. MIXI entered all six GPIF-adopted Japanese equity ESG indices on 21 July 2026 and obtained its first third-party assurance over climate-related information (Scope 1 and 2) on 18 August, but neither scores product-level chance mechanics. [Political] In Japan, NPB's owners agreed on 16 July 2026 to study a non-prediction baseball lottery, so the question of widening the legal betting object is now domestic too. [Economic] In Q1 FY2027 (Apr-Jun 2026) revenue was ¥47.07bn (+50.3%) and Sports, at ¥21.67bn (+94.5%), overtook Digital Entertainment (¥19.53bn, +21.5%) as the largest segment, though the only guidance revision was net profit (¥13.5bn to ¥25.0bn), which rests on a one-off gain from the bitbank share sale; operating (¥19.5bn) and ordinary (¥20.0bn) guidance was left unchanged, still a -12.4% / -19.0% YoY decline. Market conditions are mixed: Japan's mobile IAP fell 10% year on year in H1 2026, and global consumer spending on games was US$19.2bn in Q2 2026, down 4.5% and below non-gaming apps at US$24.4bn (+14.6%). Prediction-market monthly volume hit a record US$50.59bn in July 2026, event contracts are now also supplied through SEC-regulated Cboe products and pending ETF filings, and institutional block trading has opened. [Social] In Japan, NPB has begun studying a non-prediction baseball lottery, putting a funding need and the integrity of the sport in the same discussion. [Environmental] The public return itself is volatile too: New York's earmarked education share moved from US$59.6m in June 2026 to US$109.3m in July.
  3. 2026-09-05 August 2026: Apple's new EU terms take effect on 1 October 2026 and replace the Core Technology Fee with a 5% Core Technology Commission, and the European Commission said on 20 August 2026 that it welcomes the change. In the US Apple filed a 15% link-out proposal with the district court on 14 August; the court had not ruled as of 5 September 2026. Google applies its Epic-settlement rates (20% on in-app purchases for new installs, 10% on recurring subscriptions) to Japan and Korea by 31 December 2026. Brazil has opened alternative distribution too, and the UK's CMA may require third-party payments under strategic market status. The statutory routes, however, are barely used: an industry survey published on 26 August 2026 by MCF and seven other bodies (30 companies, 34 responses) puts alternative app stores at 5.9%, in-app alternative payment at 8.8% and link-outs at 14.7% for Apple and 11.8% for Google, while 67.6% use external payment on their own web with no in-app steering, and among firms notified over pre-existing in-app links 90% removed them for Apple and 100% for Google. The barrier may be friction rather than the rate: Epic's petition to Brazil's CADE contrasts a nine-step install with six in Europe and cites download abandonment falling from 65% to 25% when Apple cut the European flow from 15 steps to six. In betting, Australia's reform bill passed on 20 August 2026 with the advertising rules commencing on 1 January 2027, and on 25 August New South Wales set out an A$95.2m four-year package covering facial recognition at about 2,100 venues from 2028, a statewide self-exclusion register and an outright ban on VIP programmes. US sports betting weakened in May-June 2026 and recovered in July -- New York's hold went from 5.18% to 11.42% and Ohio's handle rose 17.3% -- but New York's week to 30 August was still 24.7% below a year earlier on handle, at a 9.5% hold against 11.9%. Prediction markets changed legal footing: on 28 August 2026 the Ninth Circuit held that sports event contracts are not 'swaps' and are subject to state gambling law, splitting with the Third Circuit's April 2026 ruling; New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court on 3 September, and Jefferies expects argument between November 2026 and April 2027. On 28 August the CFTC ordered a White House teleprompter operator to pay about US$172,000 for insider trading in 'mention market' contracts, and on 4 September the NFL again asked venues to drop contracts on injuries and officiating. In Japan, the Consumer Affairs Agency presented a draft interim report proposing a broad rule against dark patterns on 24 August 2026 and circulated the same draft at its ninth meeting on 2 September. [Political] Japan's ex-ante Mobile Software Competition Act intervenes in Apple/Google's cut, and the JFTC's second-year compliance reports (July 2026) drew industry criticism that the changes fell short; on 26 August, MCF and seven other bodies filed a survey-backed complaint asking the JFTC to investigate both companies for breaching the act. India banned paid games outright by political fiat; the CFTC and the states are litigating over prediction markets, with Washington's injunction widening to the main categories and Connecticut suing on 26 August 2026. At the CFTC's first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on 20 August the self-certification route, which involves no pre-listing review, drew criticism. Australia passed its biggest gambling reform bill in two decades on 20 August 2026, and New South Wales set out facial recognition, a statewide self-exclusion register and an outright ban on VIP programmes on 25 August. Brazil blocks welfare recipients from betting by matching taxpayer numbers and has also forced open alternative app distribution. [Economic] US sports-betting handle fell 0.8% in Q1 2026, May revenue fell 1.8% and June's hold across the 20 reporting states was 6.85%; July then recovered, with New York's hold back from 5.18% to 11.42% and Ohio's handle up 17.3%. New York's week to 30 August was still 24.7% below a year earlier on handle, so the level has not returned. Polymarket's funding round was reported on 31 August at about US$1bn for a valuation near US$21bn, while Kalshi's reported ~US$40bn round is unconfirmed as of 5 September 2026. [Social] Europe's June 2026 PEGI revision pushes games with paid random items to a 16+ minimum, and on 24 August 2026 Japan's Consumer Affairs Agency put the design of the purchase screen itself in play with a draft interim report on regulating dark patterns. In the US, 81% of adults view prediction markets as gambling, yet DraftKings is advertising its prediction product hard in California, where sports betting is illegal. Australia passed advertising restrictions on harm grounds in August 2026, and New South Wales is adding facial recognition, a statewide self-exclusion register and an outright ban on VIP programmes; two Sydney casinos were fined the same month for admitting minors, so the rule on paper and enforcement on the floor differ. [Technological] Alternative billing and D2C web payments are the technical means to bypass app fees, but an eight-body industry survey published on 26 August 2026 puts alternative app store use at 5.9%, in-app alternative payment at 8.8% and Apple link-out steering at 14.7% — the statutory routes are barely used, and the working channel is the link-free owned web storefront (67.6%). The rate is not the only barrier: Epic's petition to Brazil's CADE contrasts a nine-step install for alternative distribution with six in Europe and cites abandonment falling from 65% to 25% when Apple cut the European flow from 15 steps to six. AI supports margin by cutting production and operating costs, though the market it is applied to is shrinking (game spending fell 4.5% in Q2 2026), and prediction markets are both the technical fusion point of 'games x betting' and a substitute technology for incumbent fixed-odds books, but during 2026 their interface, price quoting and promotion filings came under regulation, so compliance technology began eating into the effective take-rate as a fixed cost. [Legal] Japan's smartphone law (Apple up to 26%, Google a 20% Play Services fee) and the Epic litigation (the Supreme Court granted certiorari on 30 June 2026, limited to the civil-contempt question) govern app fees; gacha self-regulation, PEGI's June 2026 ratings and the Consumer Affairs Agency's draft interim report on dark patterns of 24 August 2026 govern gacha design, purchase interfaces and the sellable age band; public-competition law, gambling law and Australian point-of-consumption tax govern betting take-rates and advertising; India's PROGA and its Supreme Court rulings govern the very existence of paid games; and the legal classification of US prediction markets governs jurisdiction over betting revenue. That classification split at the appellate level on 28 August 2026, when the Ninth Circuit held sports event contracts subject to state gambling law against the Third Circuit's April 2026 ruling, and New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court on 3 September. [Environmental] MIXI entered all six GPIF-adopted Japanese equity ESG indices in July 2026 and obtained its first third-party assurance over climate-related information (governance, risk management, Scope 1 and 2) on 18 August 2026. Both the indices and the assurance run on carbon efficiency, gender diversity and disclosure and do not score product-level chance mechanics directly, and Scope 3 was outside the assurance.
  4. 2026-09-05 September 2026: High-spender programmes drew US attention too: three federal legislators wrote to FanDuel on 3 September 2026 saying its VIP programme promotes addiction. On product, Fanatics launched a combined betting, casino and prediction app on 3 September and Polymarket opened 67 perpetual-futures markets at up to 20x leverage the same day, with US users blocked. [Political] The conflict has reached the appellate level: the Ninth Circuit backed state authority on 28 August and New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court on 3 September, while in Texas the lieutenant governor is pressing for legislative containment. High-spender programmes are in question in several places at once, through Australia's proposed outright ban and a letter three US legislators sent FanDuel on 3 September 2026. [Economic] Supply widened further: Polymarket launched 67 perpetual-futures markets at up to 20x leverage on 3 September 2026 and Fanatics launched a combined betting, casino and prediction app the same day. [Social] In the US, contracts on when injured players return were listed by self-certification even though the CFTC itself says such products create incentives that could encourage harm to athletes; the NFL wrote again on 4 September 2026, a week before the season opener, asking venues to drop them. High-spender programmes are in question too: three federal legislators wrote to FanDuel on 3 September saying its VIP programme promotes addiction.
  5. 2026-09-05 Framing carried over from the 5 September 2026 summary: MIXI's revenue spans six models -- gacha/IAP (Monster Strike), subscriptions (FamilyAlbum), advertising, betting take-rate and public-competition economics, IP licensing, and sports (tickets, sponsorship, media) -- and platform fees plus regulation set the margin on each. The fee regime acquired firm dates in late 2026. A rising weight of betting and chance-driven revenue carries addiction, youth-protection, regulatory and reputational stakes in equal measure. [Political] Platform fees remain a battleground of competition policy. In the US the Epic case has reached the Supreme Court, while betting take-rates are set by statute in every jurisdiction. Both MIXI's largest revenue line (IAP) and its expanding line (betting) sit inside political hands. [Economic] MIXI's revenue has shifted from Monster Strike-led gacha toward sports/betting via PointsBet consolidation and public-competition net voting. Margin structures differ by model: public competitions take about 25%, PointsBet's Australian net win runs about 10% of stakes, and the operator says tax and product fees absorb about 50% of its revenue. Note that PointsBet sold its US business to Fanatics for $225m in 2023-24, so MIXI operates no US sportsbook. [Social] Willingness to pay and payment acceptability cap each model, and the more a model relies on chance, the more social tolerance becomes the binding constraint. Gacha leans on a few high spenders amid scrutiny of its chance mechanics; subscriptions ride willingness to pay for a 'safe family experience'; advertising faces privacy sentiment; and betting is bounded by social demand for responsible gambling. India's paid-gaming ban drew social support on addiction and youth-protection grounds. [Technological] Technology sets both the take and the efficiency of monetization. Net-voting apps control public-competition distribution, while PIST6, whose proprietary system left it with narrow sales channels, was suspended. Harm detection is likewise becoming an implementation duty built on biometrics and identity matching. PointsBet's in-house trading platform and Canadian iGaming tech drive net-win efficiency. [Legal] Law sets the very 'take' of each model — the single most important axis. Event contracts now reach the market through both the CFTC self-certification route and the SEC-regulated securities route, so regulatory intensity differs by supplier. [Environmental] Strictly environmental questions are limited in this layer; most of the axis runs on ESG and social sustainability plus the utilization of physical assets. The 'quality' of a revenue model is scrutinized through ESG and social-sustainability lenses, and several of MIXI's six revenue models — gacha, public competitions, fixed-odds betting and prediction markets — touch chance mechanics and gambling harm. Gacha's chance mechanics (especially for minors) and betting's problem-gambling costs are screening factors for institutional investors; public competitions' return of proceeds to the public lends some social legitimacy to betting revenue but does not offset the social costs of addiction and youth protection. Revenue surfaces tied to physical assets — arenas, velodromes, printing and hardware — additionally raise questions of capital efficiency and asset utilization that purely digital models do not.

So What? (Implications for MIXI)Group-wide implications are collected in Implications for MIXI →

  1. NOW

    FamilyAlbum's recurring revenue sits outside chance-mechanic regulation but inside platform-fee exposure, at about a tenth of group revenue

    FamilyAlbum has 30m users, more than 40% of them overseas, with layered billing across premium, printing and GPS[15][35]. Subscriptions sit outside chance-mechanic and addiction rules, and the app fee falls to 15% after the first year of a subscription[14]. Lifestyle revenue was ¥4.363bn in Q1 FY2027, about 9% of the group total[59]. The implication is that this line has a different regulatory sensitivity from gacha and betting, but is not of a size that absorbs movement in either.

  2. WATCH

    Revenue that leans on a small number of very high spenders is coming under the same regulatory gaze in gacha and in betting

    Gacha depends structurally on a small base of high spenders, and Monster Strike's falling MAU with rising ARPU shows that shape[3][59]. On the betting side, Australia's reform law limits spend-linked commissions for VIP account managers[102], and US legislators wrote to FanDuel about its VIP programme on 3 September 2026[140]. In Japan, purchase-side design is now a candidate for rules[124]. The implication is that the measure is shifting from how much revenue there is to which customers it comes from, and ESG indices do not score that directly[114].

  3. NOW

    PointsBet's revenue splits between a softening Australia and a growing Canada, and taxes and product fees take about half of revenue first

    In the nine months after consolidation PointsBet's revenue was A$186.6m (-1%): Australian net win fell 4%, while Canadian iGaming net win rose 28%[12][27]. Its CEO said taxes and product fees reach about half of revenue[108]. PointsBet has sold its US business, so growth in US prediction markets does not flow directly into MIXI's revenue[71]. The implication is that the Sports segment's betting margin depends on the balance between the tax and fee load in Australia and growth in Canada.

  4. NOW

    TIPSTAR and Chariloto earn fees on record keirin sales, while PIST6, with closed distribution, stays suspended until FY2030

    Keirin ticket sales reached a record ¥1.5487tn in FY2025, 116.6% of the prior year, driven mainly by online voting[62]. TIPSTAR and Chariloto fees move with this turnover[2]. PIST6, whose proprietary system limited its sales channels, is suspended, and its restart has moved to FY2030[69]. The implication is that the same turnover figure drives both fee growth and the addiction question, since more turnover means larger total stakes.

  5. NOW

    Sports leads on revenue, but Digital Entertainment still earns most of the profit, and core-profit guidance still implies a decline

    In Q1 FY2027 Sports became the largest segment with revenue of ¥21.67bn, but its segment profit of ¥1.26bn was just over a tenth of Digital Entertainment's ¥10.88bn[59]. Full-year operating guidance of ¥19.5bn, 12.4% below the prior year, was left unchanged[29][2]. The ¥11.5bn rise in net-profit guidance comes from a one-off gain on the bitbank share sale[59], and that deal completed on 1 October 2026[187]. The implication is that group profit remains most sensitive to Digital Entertainment, led by Monster Strike.

  6. WATCH

    Monster Strike's Android fee cut depends on when each user installed, so a long-running title feels it late

    Google's new rates (20% on in-app purchases, plus 5% with Google billing) began in Japan on 30 September 2026, but only for users who first install on or after that date; existing installs keep a separate fee table[84][185]. Monster Strike is in its eleventh year, earns about 99% of its revenue in Japan, and relies on ARPU while MAU falls[3][59]. The cut reaches revenue only as new installs accumulate, so for now the effective fee moves more with the Web Shop, used for just under half of purchases[85].

Earlier implications · 24
  1. NOW

    The smartphone law multiplied billing routes, but the statutory routes are barely used and a lower effective take-rate is not yet in evidence

    The smartphone law (live December 2025) opened external payments, D2C and third-party stores[4]. Apple, however, re-priced to 15% on external links, 21% on alternative payments, up to 26% on App Store billing and a 5% Core Technology Commission for alternative marketplaces, while Google set a 20% Play Services fee on external payments[5][30]; coverage of the JFTC's second-year compliance reports published on 27 July 2026 reported little improvement in fee levels[63]. The industry survey MCF and seven other bodies published on 26 August 2026 (30 companies, 34 responses) puts alternative app stores at 5.9%, in-app alternative payment at 8.8% and link-outs at 14.7% for Apple and 11.8% for Google, while 67.6% use external payment on their own web with no in-app steering[121]. Among firms notified about pre-existing in-app links to official sites, 90% removed the link for Apple and 100% for Google[121]. The implication is that gross margin on MIXI's largest revenue line (gacha/IAP) and on FamilyAlbum subscriptions is determined not by the number of legally available routes but by the effective net per model and per OS once processing costs are counted. As a worked example, MIXI lifted use of the Monster Strike Web Shop to just under 50% in Oct-Dec 2025 without any in-app link steering[85]. The gap between the published fee table and the effective take-rate widens with how much of the sales surface a publisher can move in house, and the entrance to that surface depends on app-review practice.

  2. NOW

    Sports/betting became the largest segment while core-profit guidance was left unchanged at a YoY decline (operating ¥19.5bn, -12.4%; ordinary ¥20.0bn, -19.0%) and only net profit was revised up on a one-off gain, with regulatory and harm questions attached in equal measure

    In Q1 FY2027 Sports reached ¥21.67bn of revenue (+94.5%), overtaking Digital Entertainment (¥19.53bn) as the largest segment[59]. Public competitions yield a ~25%-takeout commission on a turnover that is itself growing (keirin ¥1,548.8bn in FY2025, +16.6%)[16][62]; PointsBet's revenue is net win (~10% of stakes), soft in Australia with Canadian iGaming +28%[12][27]; and the Chiba Jets face a higher ticket/sponsorship/media bar in B.LEAGUE PREMIER, which opens 22 September 2026[70][10]. At the same time, net profit was the only full-year line revised (¥13.5bn to ¥25.0bn, on a one-off bitbank gain) while operating ¥19.5bn and ordinary ¥20.0bn guidance was left unchanged from the initial plan, still a -12.4% / -19.0% YoY decline[59][2]. On the regulatory side, Australia's reform law passed on 20 August 2026 and commences on 1 January 2027, and New South Wales adds facial recognition, a statewide self-exclusion register and an outright ban on VIP programmes[79][109]. Larger wagering turnover is inseparable from the social costs of addiction and chance-driven spend[17]. The implication is that this phase of the revenue mix has to be read on four dimensions at once: growth rate, margin, regulation and social license.

  3. WATCH

    The three-bloc app-fee regime (Japan's law, US Epic/SCOTUS, EU DMA) is a swing factor on the largest revenue line, IAP

    IAP is MIXI's single largest revenue source, and its take is fluid at once across Japan (re-priced to Apple's up-to-26% and Google's 20% under the new law, with the JFTC publishing second-year reports in July 2026)[5][30][63], the US (the Supreme Court granted review on 30 June 2026 but limited it to whether civil contempt was proper, leaving the external-link fee level itself unresolved; October Term 2026, briefs due 14 September and 13 November)[60][7] and the EU (DMA)[4]. Region-specific fees and billing routes are variables that move effective take-rate quarter to quarter, so the implication is a standing monitoring item underlying any revenue plan.

  4. NOW

    Gacha odds disclosure, age ratings and responsible-spend/gambling standards bear on revenue quality, ESG and social license

    Both gacha (kompu ban and odds-disclosure self-rules, plus PEGI from June 2026 rating paid random items 16+, time/quantity-limited offers 12+ and NFT/blockchain mechanics 18+)[13][72] and betting (the addiction law and responsible gambling, with 81% in the US viewing it as gambling)[17][40] face scrutiny of revenue quality on chance-mechanic, addiction and youth-protection grounds. Enforcement is not limited to ratings: in January 2025 the US FTC settled with Cognosphere, publisher of Genshin Impact, for $20m, requiring disclosure of loot-box odds and virtual-currency pricing, parental consent for under-16 spending and deletion of data collected from under-13s[111]. The standard applied to safeguards, spend/deposit limits, age verification and odds disclosure is a variable bearing on compliance cost in a tightening-regulation phase, on the reachable age band in Europe, and on institutional ESG screening, and gaps in it remain a reputational and regulatory risk. MIXI entered all six GPIF-adopted Japanese equity ESG indices in July 2026, though none of those indices scores product-level chance mechanics directly[114].

  5. WATCH

    India is a case where regulation and adjudication compounded to devalue a billing-dependent model (sensitivity to jurisdiction concentration)

    India's August 2025 ban on paid games cost Dream11 ~95% of revenue, wiped out overnight a market the government valued at ₹23,200 crore (about US$2.8bn) — while outlets such as TechCrunch described a roughly US$23bn industry, so estimates diverge by an order of magnitude — and erased ~200,000 jobs plus the cricket lead sponsorship (≈US$44m total over 2023-2026)[22][32][31][53][54]. The Supreme Court's twin 2026 judgments then placed online money gaming outside commerce (res extra commercium), and Gameskraft (27 May 2026) applied 28% GST retrospectively on the full stake value, restoring show-cause notices above ₹21,000 crore[73][74]; final hearings on the constitutional challenge were still running and no judgment had been reported as of 5 September 2026[75]. The implication is that when regulation and tax adjudication move the same way in a single jurisdiction, a billing-dependent model like gacha/IAP or betting can lose not only future revenue but also have historic liabilities crystallized.

  6. WATCH

    Prediction markets act as substitution pressure on incumbent betting revenue in the US, where MIXI has no participating line

    Combined monthly volume across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US hit a record US$50.59bn in July 2026 (up 7.8% on June's US$46.95bn; Kalshi US$37.7bn), driven by the FIFA World Cup (11 June-19 July), though open interest fell from about US$2bn to US$1.2bn after the tournament, so demand is event-dependent[67]. Kalshi reached a US$22bn valuation in May 2026 and ran at about a US$2bn annualized revenue run rate in June, and its reported ~US$40bn round is still unconfirmed as of 5 September 2026[45][47]. Polymarket's round did close, reported on 31 August 2026 at about US$1bn for a valuation near US$21bn[138]. Over the same period US sports-betting handle fell 0.8% in Q1 2026, its first decline since June 2020, and the AGA estimates over US$500m of tax leakage[66][24]. The legal position is not settled. On 28 August 2026 the Ninth Circuit held that sports event contracts are not 'swaps' and are subject to state gambling law, squarely against the Third Circuit's April 2026 ruling, and New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court on 3 September[134][136]. On product, Polymarket self-certified contracts on when injured NFL players return, which the CFTC itself says create incentives that could encourage harm to athletes[115]. PointsBet sold its US business to Fanatics for US$225m in 2023[71], so MIXI books no US sportsbook revenue. The implication is that this should be read less as a participation opportunity than as a leading indicator of technical and regulatory substitution pressure on the fixed-odds and iGaming models MIXI already runs in Australia and Canada, and of regulatory intervention into product design[28][25].

  7. NOW

    FamilyAlbum's recurring revenue sits outside chance-mechanic regulation but inside platform-fee exposure, at about a tenth of group revenue

    FamilyAlbum has 30m users (40%+ overseas) with layered billing — premium (¥590/mo, ¥5,900/yr), printing, GPS and photo frames[15][35]. Unlike gacha or betting, subscriptions sit outside chance-mechanic, addiction and gambling-advertising regulation, and the app fee drops to 15% after year one of a subscription[14]. Facing a different regulatory perimeter is not the same as being able to substitute at scale, however: Lifestyle's Q1 FY2027 revenue of ¥4.363bn is about 9% of the ¥47.073bn group total and the segment only just turned profitable[59]. The implication is that FamilyAlbum's recurring revenue has a different sensitivity by regulatory type to gacha maturity and betting-rule uncertainty, but is not of a size that absorbs movement in those lines.

  8. WATCH

    Physical revenue surfaces (velodromes, arenas) turn on utilization and distribution access: PIST6's suspension versus B.LEAGUE PREMIER entry

    PIST6 in Chiba, in which MIXI is involved, relied on a proprietary system that kept ticket sales channels narrow, ran at a loss from its first year, held its final meeting on 28 September 2025, and has had its restart pushed by Chiba City from spring 2026 to fiscal 2030 — about four years[69]. Within the same public-competition category, keirin as a whole — connected to the major betting platforms — set a record ¥1,548.8bn in FY2025 (+16.6%)[62]. B.LEAGUE PREMIER, meanwhile, sets entry criteria of ¥1.2bn revenue, 4,000 average attendance and a 5,000-seat arena, and opens on 22 September 2026[70][10][9]. The implication is that, unlike digital billing, facility-based revenue models are governed by access to distribution (betting networks, event calendars) and by utilization — so outcomes can diverge sharply even inside the same Sports segment.

  9. WATCH

    App fees move in three dated steps in late 2026: Apple's EU terms on 1 October, Google's Japan rates by 31 December, and a US district-court ruling on the rate

    Apple's new EU terms take effect on 1 October 2026, replacing the Core Technology Fee with a 5% Core Technology Commission and setting link-outs at 15%, or 10% for programme members[83]. Google's Epic-settlement rates — 20% on in-app purchases for new installs, 10% on recurring subscriptions, plus 5% where Google billing is used — went live in the EEA, UK and US on 30 June 2026 and reach Japan and Korea by 31 December 2026[84]. In the US the Supreme Court declined to pause the lower-court proceedings, and Apple filed a 15% link-out proposal with the district court on 14 August 2026[82]. Because the Supreme Court took only the contempt question, the rate may be settled below it first[60]. Japan's designated-provider rates and the settlement rates will overlap in one market, so the thing to monitor is not which route is cheapest but how the effective net moves per OS and per route each quarter[5][30].

  10. WATCH

    Record prediction-market volume is not by itself evidence that sportsbook wagering was displaced (interested-party estimates conflict head-on)

    Combined monthly volume across the three main venues set a record of US$50.59bn in July 2026, but readings of what sits inside that number conflict[67]. On its August 2026 earnings call DraftKings said customer overlap with the largest prediction-market operator is about 1% and that 80-90% of prediction-market consumer volume comes from syndicates and institutional traders — its own internal estimate[90]. The AGA, by contrast, counts more than US$1bn of lost state and tribal revenue[97]. Both are interested parties, one with an incentive to minimise substitution and the other to maximise it. On third-party data, the AGA tracker shows May 2026 sports-betting revenue down 1.8% with hold 16bps lower[93], while iGaming grew 14.7% in the same month — so falling wagering demand is not explained by prediction markets alone. What to monitor is state-level handle and the composition of open interest, not the headline combined volume[67][93].

  11. NOW

    Australia's reform has passed, so PointsBet's acquisition terms change for certain on 1 January 2027 — and a levy adds a new fixed cost

    Parliament passed the bill on 20 August 2026[79]. Television is capped at three wagering ads per hour between 5am and 8:30pm, ads are barred from 15 minutes before to 5 minutes after live sport, venue signage and player uniforms are banned, and online ads are limited to logged-in adults with an opt-out[79]. The amendments ban direct marketing of inducements for 14 days after an account opens and for three months after a person leaves BetStop, limit spend-linked commissions for VIP account managers, and require operators to flag vulnerable customers[80][102]. ACMA will run the advertising opt-out register, funded by a levy on licensed operators[81]. At state level, New South Wales set out an outright ban on VIP programmes, an express-consent rule for direct marketing and transparency requirements for affiliate promotion on 25 August 2026[109]. PointsBet Australia has already shown net win down 4% and the weight of self-exclusion costs[12], and its group chief executive says tax and product fees take about 50% of revenue, an interested party's figure with no independent verification[108]. Narrower acquisition tools arriving with a new fixed cost is the operative condition for its net-win margin.

  12. WATCH

    An operator sets its take-rate but not its realised hold, which results decide: in June 2026 US handle rose in a month when revenue fell

    Sports Handle's tally (31 July 2026) of the 20 states reporting by then puts June 2026 handle at US$6.8bn, revenue at US$468.4m and hold at 6.85%[113]. New York revenue fell 43.5% year on year and Connecticut 57.5% on a 3.83% hold, where DraftKings paid out more than it collected[113]. The New Jersey attorney general attributed the fall to patron winnings on the NBA Finals and the World Cup[113]. The AGA tracker likewise shows hold 16bps lower in May[93]. Prediction markets set a record single-day volume in the same month, so demand did not fall[42]. It reversed the next month: New York's official series shows July 2026 handle lower yet GGR up from US$116.8m to US$214.4m and hold back from 5.18% to 11.42%, against a 9.93% hold for the full year to March 2026[125]. The implication is that revenue models quoted as take-rates (about 25% for public competitions, about 10% net win for fixed odds) have to be judged on realised rather than nominal rates, and that a single weak month or quarter is not by itself evidence of deterioration[16][12].

  13. WATCH

    In Japan the design of the purchase screen itself is becoming a regulatory question (Consumer Affairs Agency draft interim report on dark patterns, 24 August 2026)

    On 24 August 2026 the Consumer Affairs Agency's study group on digital transactions and the Act on Specified Commercial Transactions presented a draft interim report aimed at amending that Act[123][124]. It lists as targets: displays and interfaces where an ordinary consumer cannot accurately grasp price, quantity or contract term; false information about stock, time-limited sales or usage; aggressive displays that press an order through repeated prompts or intimidating wording; and unreasonable delay in cancellation. Scope would be clarified in subordinate rules and guidance as blacklists of unlawful patterns[124]. The draft does not mention games or gacha, but time- and quantity-limited offers, stock and countdown displays and cancellation flows are standard technique in both gacha and subscriptions — the same design surface Europe's PEGI folded into age ratings[72][13]. The next meeting is 2 September 2026 and the draft fixes no date for a bill[123]. The implication is that, alongside odds disclosure and age verification, purchase and cancellation interface design may become a compliance-cost variable for gacha/IAP and subscriptions alike.

  14. WATCH

    The US jurisdictional fight has reached an appellate split, raising the chance that the Supreme Court decides where betting-derived revenue belongs

    In April 2026 the Third Circuit held sports event contracts are 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act and barred state law[25]. On 28 August 2026 the Ninth Circuit ruled unanimously the other way in Kalshi v. Nevada, finding the contracts are sports bets and that the Act does not preempt state gambling regulation[134][135]. New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court over the Third Circuit ruling on 3 September 2026[136]. A Jefferies analyst expects argument between November 2026 and April 2027 and identifies the main risk not as prohibition but as erosion of economics through taxes, compliance costs, geofencing, product restrictions and state fragmentation[137]. The outcome decides which regime US betting revenue sits in: state licensing with statutory takeout and tax, or federal commodity regulation. MIXI sold its US sportsbook business to Fanatics in 2023 and books no US betting revenue[71]. The implication is therefore not about participating but that the competitive setting for the Australian and Canadian fixed-odds and iGaming books, and the reference frame for Japan's discussion of a new non-prediction betting object, can both move with this ruling[12][131].

  15. WATCH

    Revenue that leans on a small number of very high spenders is coming under the same regulatory gaze in gacha and in betting

    Gacha depends structurally on a small base of high spenders, and Monster Strike's falling MAU with rising ARPU shows that shape[3][59]. On the betting side, Australia's reform law limits spend-linked commissions for VIP account managers and obliges operators to flag vulnerable customers[102], and New South Wales proposed banning VIP programmes outright on 25 August 2026[109]. In the US, Senator Blumenthal and Representatives Tonko and Foushee wrote to FanDuel on 3 September 2026, saying its VIP programme uses personal relationships with account managers and incentives to encourage excessive gambling, and citing a personalised video message from a well-known athlete sent to a customer who had lost more than US$1.5m[140]. In Japan, the Consumer Affairs Agency's draft interim report puts purchase-side design such as time- and quantity-limited offers and cancellation flows in scope[124]. What these share is a shift in the measure from how much revenue there is to which customers it comes from and through what contact. ESG indices do not score that directly[114], so regulators are quantifying it ahead of disclosure. The implication is that, for now, outside assessment of revenue quality is legible in regulatory documents and enforcement cases rather than in index inclusion[13].

  16. NOW

    The smartphone law multiplied billing routes, but the statutory routes are barely used and a lower effective take-rate is not yet in evidence

    The smartphone law opened external payments and third-party stores[4]. Yet the eight-body survey published on 26 August 2026 puts alternative app store use at 5.9% and in-app alternative payment at 8.8%, while 67.6% use external payment on their own web with no in-app steering[121]. The implication is that the effective take-rate follows how much of the sales surface a publisher can move in house, not the published fee tables[5][30]; MIXI's Monster Strike Web Shop reached just under 50% usage with no in-app link[85].

  17. NOW

    Sports/betting became the largest segment while core-profit guidance was left unchanged at a YoY decline (operating ¥19.5bn, -12.4%; ordinary ¥20.0bn, -19.0%) and only net profit was revised up on a one-off gain, with regulatory and harm questions attached in equal measure

    In Q1 FY2027 Sports reached revenue of ¥21.67bn (+94.5%) and overtook Digital Entertainment as the largest segment[59]. Full-year operating guidance of ¥19.5bn and ordinary guidance of ¥20.0bn were left unchanged, still declines of 12.4% and 19.0% year on year[2]. Australia's reform law commences on 1 January 2027[79], and New South Wales adds an outright ban on VIP programmes[109]. Larger wagering turnover is inseparable from the social costs of addiction[17]. The implication is that growth rate, margin and regulation now have to be read together.

  18. NOW

    Gacha odds disclosure, age ratings and responsible-spend/gambling standards bear on revenue quality, ESG and social license

    Gacha faces odds-disclosure self-rules and, from June 2026, PEGI ratings that push games with paid random items to 16+[13][72]; betting sits under the addiction law and responsible-gambling expectations[17][40]. In January 2025 the US FTC settled with Cognosphere, publisher of Genshin Impact, for US$20m over loot-box odds and under-16 spending[111]. The implication is that the standard applied to age verification and odds disclosure drives compliance cost and the reachable age band, while the ESG indices MIXI joined do not score product-level chance mechanics[114].

  19. WATCH

    App fees move in three dated steps in late 2026: Apple's EU terms on 1 October, Google's Japan rates by 31 December, and a US district-court ruling on the rate

    Apple's new EU terms take effect on 1 October 2026, setting link-outs at 15%, or 10% for programme members[83]. Google's Epic-settlement rates reach Japan and Korea by 31 December 2026[84]. In the US, Apple filed a 15% link-out proposal with the district court on 14 August 2026[82], and because the Supreme Court took only the contempt question the rate may be settled below it first[60]. The implication is that the thing to monitor is how the effective net moves per OS and per route each quarter[5].

  20. NOW

    Australia's reform has passed, so PointsBet's acquisition terms change for certain on 1 January 2027 — and a levy adds a new fixed cost

    Parliament passed the reform bill on 20 August 2026 and the advertising rules commence on 1 January 2027[79]. The amendments ban direct marketing of inducements for 14 days after an account opens, limit spend-linked commissions for VIP account managers, and require operators to flag vulnerable customers[80][102]. ACMA will run the advertising opt-out register, funded by a levy on licensed operators[81]. PointsBet Australia has already shown net win down 4%[12]. The implication is that narrower acquisition tools and a new fixed cost arrive together.

  21. WATCH

    In Japan the design of the purchase screen itself is becoming a regulatory question (Consumer Affairs Agency draft interim report on dark patterns, 24 August 2026)

    On 24 August 2026 the Consumer Affairs Agency's study group presented a draft interim report aimed at amending the Act on Specified Commercial Transactions[123][124]. It targets displays and interfaces that obscure price or contract term, aggressive prompts, and unreasonable delay in cancellation. The draft does not mention gacha, but time- and quantity-limited offers are standard technique in gacha and subscriptions alike, the same design surface PEGI folded into age ratings[72][13]. The implication is that purchase and cancellation interface design may become a compliance-cost variable.

  22. WATCH

    Japan's purchase and cancellation interface rules have left the draft stage and move to the subordinate rules that will list unlawful patterns

    The Consumer Affairs Agency study group finalised its interim report on 10 September 2026, backing rules on misleading and aggressive displays and interfaces[175]. Unlawful and lawful patterns will be set in subordinate rules and guidance, drafted in a separate forum. The report does not mention gacha, but limited-time and limited-quantity offers and remaining-stock displays are standard sales methods for gacha and subscriptions, the same design surface PEGI now counts in its ratings[72][13]. The implication is that what goes on the blacklist will set the compliance cost of purchase and cancellation interfaces.

  23. NOW

    Sports leads on revenue, but Digital Entertainment still earns most of the profit, and core-profit guidance still implies a decline

    In Q1 FY2027 Sports became the largest segment with revenue of ¥21.67bn, but its segment profit of ¥1.26bn was just over a tenth of Digital Entertainment's ¥10.88bn[59]. Full-year operating guidance of ¥19.5bn, 12.4% below the prior year, was left unchanged[29][2]. The ¥11.5bn rise in net-profit guidance comes from a one-off gain on the bitbank share sale[59], and that deal is due to complete around October 2026[95]. The implication is that group profit remains most sensitive to Digital Entertainment, led by Monster Strike.

  24. WATCH

    Monster Strike's effective fee depends more on its Web Shop share than on fee tables, and a bar on web-only items caps that share

    Monster Strike Web Shop usage rose from just over 20% to just under 50% year on year in October to December 2025, with no in-app link[85]. Apple, however, requires the related web page to offer the same items, so web-only digital content is still not allowed[176]. The Web Shop can differ only on payment methods and timing[86][87]. On the in-app side, Google's Epic-settlement rates reach Japan by 31 December 2026[84]. The implication is that Monster Strike's effective fee moves with both the route mix and the per-OS rates.

Top risks & opportunities

More signals · 40
Expired signals · 8

PESTLE analysis

P E S T L E
P Political 19

Platform fees and betting jurisdiction are the main political battlegrounds. In Japan industry bodies now contest the compliance reports and want the JFTC's assessment. In the US states are moving on prediction markets together, and the clash with federal authority awaits the Supreme Court. Australia passed its reform law, and Brazil, beyond blocking demand, is weighing an online casino ban. A baseball lottery is under study in Japan.

  1. 🇯🇵
    Japan's Mobile Software Competition Act (the 'smartphone law') took full effect on 18 December 2025, designating Apple, Google and iTunes K.K. as regulated providers and forcing them to drop anti-steering, allow third-party app stores and alternative (external) payments, and stop using platform data to compete with third parties. … The JFTC published the second-year compliance reports on 27 July 2026; press coverage reported that fee levels showed no significant improvement and drew criticism from app-industry bodies — so the options the law opened and the actual take-rate developers pay have not converged[4][5][63].
    as of 2026-07
  2. 🇺🇸
    Federal, state and congressional actors collide over prediction markets. Senators Schiff and Curtis introduced the 'Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act' to bar CFTC-registered entities from listing sports-bet-like contracts. … The CFTC sued states directly, taking New Mexico on 12 June 2026 and Kentucky on 23 June 2026 to court to prevent violation of its exclusive jurisdiction. States are pursuing injunctions and criminal charges for unlicensed gambling; an independent litigation tracker (updated 7 August 2026) counts contested cases in more than ten states, and industry tallies put roughly 20 states at the level of suits or cease-and-desist orders. The conflict changed level at the end of August 2026, when the Ninth Circuit ruled for Nevada on 28 August 2026 and Ohio, Iowa, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Utah began citing that decision in their own cases. On 3 September 2026 New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court over the Third Circuit's opposite ruling[39][40][46][76][77][134][136].
    as of 2026-09-03
  3. 🇦🇺
    Australia's gambling overhaul was settled in August 2026. The government announced its largest reform package in two decades on 2 April 2026 (an A$112.7m implementation budget) and introduced the Interactive Gambling Amendment (Gambling Reform) Bill 2026 on 2 July. … The Senate Environment and Communications Committee reported on its due date, 17 August 2026, with a single recommendation that the bills be passed; Senator Pocock and the Greens filed dissenting reports. Labor and the Coalition agreed about 15 amendments the same day. Parliament passed the bill on 20 August 2026. The final form is not a blanket broadcast ban: television is capped at three wagering ads per hour between 5am and 8:30pm, ads are barred from 15 minutes before to 5 minutes after live sport, radio ads are barred during school run times, venue signage and player uniforms are banned, and online ads are limited to logged-in adults with an opt-out. A new Wagering Advertising Opt-out Register will be run by ACMA and paid for by a levy on licensed wagering operators; it may take up to 12 months to stand up. The advertising rules still commence on 1 January 2027[79][80][81][36][18][64][65].
    as of 2026-08-20
  4. 🇮🇳
    India enacted the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act (PROGA 2025) in August 2025, banning all real-money online games for stakes regardless of skill-vs-chance, with implementing Rules in force from 1 May 2026. … Dream11, MPL, WinZO and peers halted paid contests on enactment in August 2025 — Dream11 lost ~95% of its revenue. A market the Indian government valued at ₹23,200 crore (about US$2.8bn / ~¥430bn) — while outlets such as TechCrunch described a roughly US$23bn (~¥3.4tn) industry, so estimates diverge by an order of magnitude — and that generated ~₹20,000 crore of annual GST vanished by political fiat. The Supreme Court has moved to final hearings on petitions challenging the Act's constitutionality, and no judgment had been reported as of 5 September 2026[22][23][53][54][75].
    as of 2026-09-05
  5. Japan's smartphone law, the EU's Digital Markets Act and US court rulings are converging in parallel against 'gatekeeper take', trending toward legalized alternative billing. … As the reaction to Japan's July 2026 compliance reports shows, however, opening the route legally does not automatically lower the effective fee. The premise of MIXI's largest revenue source — in-app purchases — remains politically fluid across regions at once[4][6][63].
    as of 2026-07
  6. 🇺🇸
    The CFTC is actively building out the federal side of the framework. On 4 February 2026 it withdrew the earlier event-contracts proposal and staff's 2025 sports-event-contract advisory; on 10 June 2026 it issued a 267-page NPRM permitting sports event contracts within limits (comments closed 27 July 2026). … In parallel it proposed data-reporting requirements for certain event contracts on 25 June, issued an advisory on self-certification of an event contract series on 24 July, and on 31 July fined an individual $35,000 for manipulative trading of a State-of-the-Union event contract. Federal institution-building and state pushback are advancing at the same time[43][77][25].
    as of 2026-07-31
  7. 🇺🇸
    The external-link fee level began to move in the district court before the Supreme Court ruled. In August 2026 the Supreme Court refused Apple's request to pause the lower-court proceedings. … On 14 August 2026 Apple filed a new fee schedule with the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California: 15% standard, 5% for Small Business Program apps, 10% for the Video, News and Mini Apps partner programs, and 10% on subscription renewals. Epic replied that the rates fall 'far outside of the bounds' of the court's guidance, and the judge has not ruled. Because the Supreme Court took only the civil-contempt question, the district court may fix the rate first[82][60][6].
    as of 2026-08-14
  8. 🇺🇸
    The federal-state conflict is now measurable in numbers. On 27 July 2026, the day comments closed on the CFTC's proposed rule, attorneys general from 44 states wrote jointly to the CFTC to argue that it has no power to regulate sports-related event contracts. … The CFTC has sued nine states to defend its exclusive jurisdiction. New York sued Kalshi on 31 July 2026, calling it an illegal gambling operation. The CFTC is pressing the industry at the same time: in August 2026 it ran an internal review of 'mention markets', wrote to platforms telling them not to display odds in a casino-style format, and sought comment on vertical integration[88][89][43][77].
    as of 2026-08
  9. The legal status of prediction markets diverges by jurisdiction. On 4 August 2026 the Australian Securities and Investments Commission issued its strongest warning yet on offshore prediction markets, stating that they are illegal in Australia and that users get no financial-services protection, and updated its Moneysmart guidance. … In Japan, the crypto exchange bitbank announced on 15 June 2026 that it will suspend accounts where deposits or withdrawals connect to decentralised prediction markets such as Polymarket, noting that domestic use may amount to gambling. The substitution from sportsbooks to prediction markets seen in the US therefore does not transfer cleanly to Japan or Australia[96][94][67].
    as of 2026-08-04
  10. 🇺🇸
    The federal design runs on after-the-fact self-certification rather than pre-listing review. The CFTC held the first meeting of its Innovation Advisory Committee in Washington on 20 August 2026 and announced it the next day. … CME chief executive Terry Duffy said 2,500 self-certifications have been filed since January 2025 and that the CFTC has opposed none of them, and argued that 'mention markets' are open to manipulation and that some listed products breach core principles. Kalshi chief operating officer Luana Lopes Lara defended self-certification, saying venues need to list markets quickly for users. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig acknowledged hearing that retail protections are inadequate and set out a three-part roadmap: prohibition rules for event contracts, modernised reporting for fully collateralised contracts, and consumer protections for designated contract markets. That listings are not reviewed before they go live is itself what sets the regulatory intensity of this revenue surface[104][89][43].
    as of 2026-08-20
  11. Brazil has moved past advertising rules to blocking demand directly. Since October 2025 the Finance Ministry's prizes and betting secretariat has run an API that licensed operators query at registration and at the first login of each day; it matches the CPF taxpayer number of recipients of the Bolsa Família income-support and BPC disability and old-age benefits, refuses new accounts and closes existing ones within three days. … On 20 August 2026 the ministry said more than 3 million people are now blocked this way, and on 13 August it said about 800,000 more are barred as a condition of joining the Desenrola debt-relief programme. Brazilian press tallies, which include voluntary self-exclusion, put the total barred above 5 million. Stopping demand by identity matching is a different instrument from the advertising and take-rate rules used in Japan and Australia, and it shows the regulatory menu extending beyond advertising[107][118].
    as of 2026-08-20
  12. 🇯🇵
    Six months on, industry bodies told the Japan Fair Trade Commission that the law's purpose is not being met. On 26 August 2026 eight organisations — the Mobile Content Forum (MCF), the Japan Online Game Association, CESA, the Japan Esports Union, the Japan IT Federation, the Startup Ecosystem Association, the Startup Association and the Association of Media in Digital — published a survey of 30 app companies (34 responses, fielded 9 July to 7 August 2026) together with a formal opinion. … MCF argues that Apple's and Google's new terms amount to conduct the smartphone act prohibits, and asks the JFTC to investigate and take measures; it filed a separate opinion on the alternative-marketplace terms the same day. The complaint matches commentary on the 27 July compliance reports, but it now arrives with survey numbers attached[121][122][63][4].
    as of 2026-08-26
  13. 🇯🇵
    Japan has begun to consider widening the set of legal betting objects beyond the public-competition system. On 16 July 2026 the owners' meeting of Nippon Professional Baseball agreed to study adding professional baseball to the sports promotion lottery, the so-called baseball toto. … The chair, DeNA owner Tomoko Namba, said the work assumes a non-prediction format in which the buyer cannot pick a winner, and that the league office and board will consult the relevant bodies. The stated purpose is funding junior-high-school club sport as school clubs shift to community delivery. The owners discussed the idea in 2015 and 2018 without progress. In late July the owners' representatives and the players' union met directly for the first time, discussed business expansion including the lottery, and issued a joint statement confirming closer cooperation (Sports Hochi dates the meeting 27 July and filed on 28 July). Legislation, consultation and match-fixing safeguards all remain open, so this is a study rather than a decision[131][132][17][16].
    as of 2026-07-28
  14. 🇺🇸
    State-level political pressure now travels through announced legislation as well as litigation. On 4 September 2026 gamingintelligence reported that Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick wants the state to close what he calls the loopholes that let prediction markets offer wagers on sports. … Texas has not legalised sports betting, and it is one of the four states -- with California, Georgia and Florida -- where DraftKings pushed prediction-product advertising in August 2026. The article body is behind a subscription and no bill text or timetable has been published. The sequence repeats here: acquisition advertising for prediction products arrives first in a state that allows no sportsbook, and legislative containment is debated afterwards[158][129][134].
    as of 2026-09-04
  15. 🇺🇸
    High-spender programmes became a political target in the United States and Australia at the same time. On 3 September 2026 Senator Richard Blumenthal and Representatives Paul Tonko and Valerie Foushee wrote to FanDuel, saying its VIP programme uses personal relationships with account managers and incentives to encourage excessive gambling and that the company 'fails to demonstrate any commitment to its customers' well-being through any meaningful limitations on exploitative and dangerous marketing'. … The report cites a Pennsylvania man who lost more than US$1.5m on the platform and received a personalised video message from the baseball player Bryce Harper as part of VIP marketing. The same mechanism is what Australia's reform law restricts by limiting spend-linked commissions for VIP account managers, and what New South Wales proposed to ban outright on 25 August 2026. A revenue structure that leans on a small number of very high spenders is common to gacha and to betting, and it is now a candidate for rules in several jurisdictions at once[140][109][102].
    as of 2026-09-03
  16. Gatekeeper regulation now runs in Brazil as well as Japan, the EU and the US. After a long antitrust process with Brazil's competition authority CADE, Apple allowed alternative marketplaces and out-of-App-Store payment in Brazil around mid-2026, charging a 5% Core Technology Commission on digital goods sold through apps distributed outside the App Store. … On 21 August 2026 Epic and the Coalition for App Fairness petitioned CADE, arguing the terms create structural, technical and access barriers: installing from an alternative marketplace takes nine steps in Brazil against six in Europe, scare screens discourage sideloading, and reporting duties let Apple watch competitors. In the EU, the European Commission said on 20 August 2026 that it welcomes Apple's new terms and will monitor implementation. The same pattern repeats across jurisdictions: whether a route is opened and whether it is used are different questions[149][148][83][121].
    as of 2026-08-21
  17. 🇯🇵
    Industry bodies have now contested the compliance reports themselves. On 24 September 2026 MCF published its opinion on the FY2025 reports (18 December 2025 to 31 March 2026) that the JFTC released on 27 July. … It argues that Apple's and Google's terms put fees with no clear basis on alternative payments and link-outs, obstruct their use, and so breach Article 8 of the smartphone act. It also objects that the reports cite broad justifications, such as youth protection and preventing gambling and other crime, without explaining each case. MCF asks the JFTC to publish its assessment of the reports and to enforce the act. Until the regulator gives that assessment, the industry bodies' account and the designated providers' account of the law's effect stand side by side[176][63][121].
    as of 2026-09-24
  18. Brazil, having blocked demand, is now weighing a ban on a product itself. According to Yogonet, President Lula's government was considering in September 2026 a ban on online casino games, especially 'tigrinho', a digital casino game not tied to real events, with talks expected from 23 September. … The Workers' Party has taken the issue into its campaign. There are obstacles. Each of 85 licensed operators paid R$30m (about US$5.8m) for a five-year licence, so early termination could bring litigation. Households reportedly lost R$62.5bn (about US$12.17bn) to betting in 2025, and a May 2026 Datafolha survey found 57% see online gambling as addictive. Operators, influencers and football clubs oppose a ban in Congress[179][107].
    as of 2026-09-23
  19. The re-pricing of gatekeeper fees acquired firm dates in 2026. Google announced its Epic settlement on 4 March 2026 and cut the Play service fee to 20% on in-app purchases for new installs and 10% on recurring subscriptions, adding 5% only where Google billing is used. … The terms took effect in the EEA, UK and US on 30 June 2026 and in Australia on 30 September 2026. Japan was brought forward from December to 30 September 2026 after talks with the Japan Fair Trade Commission; Korea follows by 31 December 2026 and the rest of the world by 30 September 2027[84][188][185]. Apple published new EU terms on 18 August 2026: the per-install Core Technology Fee is replaced by a 5% Core Technology Commission on digital transactions outside the App Store, with 26% on App Store billing (15% for most developers), 20% on alternative payment processing (10%) and 15% on link-outs (10%). Those terms take effect on 1 October 2026. Japan's smartphone-law rates therefore sit alongside a second, separately negotiated rate schedule, in Play's case from 30 September 2026[83][5][30].
    as of 2026-10
History · 2
  1. 🇺🇸 In the US the Epic v. Apple litigation cemented a ban on 'anti-steering', letting developers post external links to their own sites. On 11 December 2025 the Ninth Circuit allowed Apple to charge some fee on linked-out purchases but barred the old 27% level; Apple filed its certiorari petition on 21 May 2026. On 30 June 2026 the Supreme Court granted review 'limited to Question 1' — whether a court may hold a party in civil contempt for violating an injunction's 'spirit'. It is an October Term 2026 case, with petitioner's brief due 14 September and respondent's 13 November 2026; argument is not yet scheduled[6][7][60]. as of 2026-06-30 · superseded by ↓
  2. The re-pricing of gatekeeper fees acquired firm dates in 2026. Google announced its Epic settlement on 4 March 2026 and cut the Play service fee to 20% on in-app purchases for new installs and 10% on recurring subscriptions, adding 5% only where Google billing is used. The terms took effect in the EEA, UK and US on 30 June 2026, reach Australia on 30 September 2026, Japan and Korea by 31 December 2026, and the rest of the world by 30 September 2027. Apple published new EU terms on 18 August 2026: the per-install Core Technology Fee is replaced by a 5% Core Technology Commission on digital transactions outside the App Store, with 26% on App Store billing (15% for most developers), 20% on alternative payment processing (10%) and 15% on link-outs (10%). Those terms take effect on 1 October 2026. Japan's smartphone-law rates will therefore sit alongside a second, separately negotiated rate schedule — in Play's case from the end of 2026[84][83][5][30]. as of 2026-08-18 · superseded by ↓
E Economic 33

Revenue has shifted to sports and betting, yet core full-year profit guidance implies a decline and the net-profit raise is one-off. Japanese mobile game spending is shrinking; Monster Strike holds rank in a smaller market. US betting fell year on year in August but rose at the NFL opener, and prediction markets are forecast to take about a fifth of NFL demand. MIXI runs no US sportsbook.

  1. 🇯🇵
    Q1 FY2027 (Apr-Jun 2026) posted consolidated revenue of ¥47.073bn (+50.3%), operating income ¥5.428bn (+102.8%), ordinary income ¥5.652bn (+179.3%) and quarterly net income ¥5.825bn. … By segment, Sports reached ¥21.673bn revenue (+94.5%) and ¥1.258bn profit (+108.0%) on PointsBet consolidation, velodrome operations and FC Tokyo/Chiba Jets ticketing — overtaking Digital Entertainment (¥19.532bn revenue, +21.5%; ¥10.881bn profit, +39.5%) as the largest segment. Lifestyle turned profitable at ¥4.363bn revenue (+24.5%) and ¥261m profit, and Investment was ¥1.502bn (+158.1%)[59].
    as of 2026-06
  2. 🇯🇵 FY2026 (ended Mar 2026) posted ¥171.3bn revenue and ¥22.2bn operating income. Digital Entertainment (Monster Strike-centric gacha/IAP) was ¥83.89bn of revenue (~50% of the ¥171.37bn total), mature and slightly down, while the Sports segment jumped to ¥65.85bn (+63.8%, with PointsBet consolidated only in H2). The shift from single-gacha dependence to multiple revenue models is visible in the full-year accounts[1][2]. as of 2026-03
  3. 🇯🇵
    FY2027 guidance is ¥185bn group revenue (+8.0%) with the Sports segment alone above ¥86bn, reflecting full-year PointsBet consolidation. At the Q1 release (31 July 2026) MIXI raised full-year net income attributable to owners from ¥13.5bn to ¥25.0bn (+44.8% YoY; +85.2% against the initial forecast) and lifted the annual dividend from ¥125 to ¥155 (¥60 interim, ¥95 final). … The raise stems from an expected extraordinary gain on the bitbank share sale — a one-off — and net profit was the only line revised: operating profit of ¥19.5bn and ordinary profit of ¥20.0bn were left unchanged from the May 2026 plan, which against FY2026 actuals (operating ¥22.26bn, ordinary ¥24.7bn) still implies declines of 12.4% and 19.0% YoY. Revenue growth and core operating profit pointing in different directions is a necessary caveat when reading the revenue-mix transition[29][59][2][1].
    as of 2026-07-31
  4. 🇯🇵 Monster Strike, the gacha/IAP flagship, has earned $11bn+ over 11 years with ~99% from Japan — a high-margin IP, but past peak ($570.7m in 2024). In Q1 FY2027 MAU continued to decline while IP collaborations lifted ARPU and cost efficiency held up segment earnings. Gacha still carries high gross margin, but Apple/Google take 15-30% and odds design plus operating efficiency continue to drive the bottom line[3][59][1]. as of 2026-06
  5. 🇯🇵
    Mobile spending contracted faster in 2026. Sensor Tower's H1 2026 Gaming Digital Market Index (published 30 July 2026) puts global game IAP at US$40bn, down 2% year on year, with downloads at 24bn, down 12%. … By region, mature markets shrank -- Japan -10%, the US -7%, South Korea -10% -- while Europe rose about 10%. The quarterly view is worse: its Q2 2026 Digital Market Index (reported 11 August 2026) puts consumer spending on games at US$19.2bn, down 4.5% year on year, on 11.3bn downloads, while non-gaming apps took US$24.4bn (up 14.6%) on 25.5bn downloads, with generative-AI apps up 108%. Non-gaming app spending is now larger than game spending. Against Japan's full-year 2025 (about US$11bn of mobile IAP, roughly -2.2%), the slowdown is sharper, so the market underpinning gacha revenue is itself shrinking. Gaming digital ad spend, by contrast, grew to US$7bn (+8%) on 1.4tn impressions (+14%) -- spend-based and ad-based monetization are diverging[68][38][51][147].
    as of 2026-06
  6. 🇯🇵
    Competitive ranks inside Japan are also moving. Sensor Tower's H1 2026 (Jan-Jun) Japan tally puts Funfly's Last War: Survival top by revenue for a second consecutive half, with Block Blast top by downloads. … Eight of the top ten revenue titles come from domestic publishers, and Konami's eFootball rose from 13th a year earlier to 3rd; by publisher revenue the order was Bandai Namco, Konami, CyberAgent. Even a top-tier domestic gacha IP does not hold the market's number-one position structurally[78][3].
    as of 2026-06
  7. 🇯🇵
    IP licensing is a revenue-and-acquisition model that complements gacha. MIXI keeps running large IP collaborations in Monster Strike (Detective Conan, Macross, Frieren and others) alongside anniversary gacha, where character-licensing rights drive both marketing and spend. … The Q1 FY2027 ARPU increase is likewise attributed to IP collaborations — cycling a mature IP through both its own billing surfaces and licensing exposure is how gacha revenue is being held up[19][3][59].
    as of 2026-06
  8. 🇯🇵
    Public-competition economics (keirin, horse, boat, auto) are set by the takeout rate — averaging ~25% for keirin and ~25.9% for horse racing, i.e. ~75% returned to punters. … MIXI earns commissions on net-voting turnover through TIPSTAR and Chari-Roto plus comprehensive operating fees at keirin tracks. Net-voting penetration structurally expands that commission base, but a larger turnover is by definition a larger total amount wagered, inseparable from the social costs of addiction and chance-driven spend[16][2].
    as of 2026-05
  9. 🇯🇵
    Keirin ticket sales hit a record ¥1,548.8bn in FY2025 (Apr 2025-Mar 2026), 116.6% of the prior year — a fourth straight year above ¥1tn and the first above ¥1.5tn since FY1997 (FY2024 was ¥1,328.2bn). … Net-voting penetration is the main driver, and MIXI's TIPSTAR and Chari-Roto earn commission on that turnover. Note, however, that the series excludes Chiba's PIST6 (250-class racing), in which MIXI is involved, from October 2025 onward because its meetings are suspended[62][26][2][69].
    as of 2026-03
  10. 🇦🇺
    Under MIXI, PointsBet's FY26 group revenue (the nine months to March 2026) was ~A$186.6m (-1%), essentially flat. Australia softened — A$152m revenue (-4%), 13.3% gross-win margin held but net win A$167.3m (-4%) — while Canada grew, with A$34.6m revenue (+13%) and iGaming net win A$23.6m (+28%). … MIXI's betting line is a two-pole structure: a softening Australian fixed-odds book and a growing Canadian iGaming book, each under different regulatory conditions — advertising restrictions due in Australia from 2027, and responsible-gambling demands that scale with online-casino growth in Canada[12][27][18].
    as of 2026-03
  11. 🇺🇸
    The US set records in 2025: sports-betting handle US$166.94bn (+11%), revenue US$16.96bn (+22.8%) and state taxes US$3.71bn (+32.4%), with total commercial gaming GGR of US$78.72bn (+9.2%) on US$18.1bn of gaming taxes. … In Q1 2026, however, handle was US$43.52bn, down 0.8% YoY — the first quarterly decline since June 2020 — while hold rose to 9.8% (+85bps), lifting revenue to US$4.27bn (+8.6%). Total commercial gaming was US$20.09bn (+6.0%) and iGaming US$3.04bn (+20.7%). Volume is falling while operators earn more per dollar staked. Note that PointsBet sold its US business to Fanatics for US$225m in 2023 (closing state-by-state through 2024) and holds no US operations, so MIXI books no US sportsbook revenue — the market is a competitive and substitution reference point rather than a revenue line[20][21][66][71].
    as of 2026-03
  12. 🇮🇳
    Until the ban, India was a major paid-gaming market whose size varies sharply by source — the government valued real-money gaming at ₹23,200 crore (about US$2.8bn / ~¥430bn) while outlets such as TechCrunch described a roughly US$23bn (~¥3.4tn) industry — generating ~₹20,000 crore of GST, with Dream11 drawing ~95% of revenue from paid contests. … The full ban accompanying PROGA's enactment in August 2025 wiped out that line and forced a pivot to esports, free and ad models. The Supreme Court's Gameskraft judgment of 27 May 2026 then applied 28% GST retrospectively on the full stake value and restored show-cause notices exceeding ₹21,000 crore, fixing the historic tax burden as well. It is a live example of emerging-market risk in which a billing-dependent (IAP/betting) revenue model is devalued by regulation and adjudication together[23][22][53][54][74].
    as of 2026-05-27
  13. 🇯🇵
    MIXI has already made out-of-app billing a primary sales surface. In March 2026 the company said that use of the Monster Strike Web Shop rose from just over 20% a year earlier to just under 50% in Q3 FY2026 (Oct-Dec 2025). … It runs no in-app link steering to the shop and builds awareness through owned media, notably a weekly YouTube programme. The payment stack is built in house, complies with PCI DSS and authenticates through MIXI ID. Accepted methods include cards, PayPay, Rakuten Pay, Amazon Pay, Paidy, atone and PayPal, and Minna no Ginko instant bank payment was added on 6 August 2026. For the Jujutsu Kaisen collaboration that opened on 14 July 2026, the collaboration gacha went on sale in the Web Shop ahead of the app. The effective take-rate therefore depends more on this channel mix than on the published fee tables[85][86][87].
    as of 2026-08-06
  14. 🇺🇸
    Q2 2026 earnings showed incumbent sportsbooks growing their own prediction surfaces while denying substitution. DraftKings said its prediction platform, launched in December 2025, grew from US$2.3bn to US$11bn of annualised volume between April and July 2026, with more than 600,000 customers engaged. … Its CEO said customer overlap between the sportsbook and the largest prediction-market operator is about 1% in sportsbook states, and that 80-90% of prediction-market consumer volume comes from betting syndicates and institutional traders — a DraftKings internal estimate. In August 2026 Flutter moved FanDuel Predicts' sports and novelty contracts from CME to Crypto.com and guided to about US$50m of market-making revenue this year. Coinbase reported prediction-market revenue up 106% quarter on quarter. Record volume and displaced sportsbook wagering are separate questions[90][67][24].
    as of 2026-08
  15. 🇺🇸
    Prediction markets are consolidating from the capital-markets side. On 30 July 2026 IG Group, an FTSE 100 trading platform, agreed to buy Underdog — a daily-fantasy operator turned prediction-market venue — for US$1.1bn upfront plus an earnout of about US$200m, up to US$1.3bn. … IG said the deal should double its US revenue; Underdog had opened its own wholly owned yes/no exchange in July 2026. The UK exchange Smarkets is running a dual track: it filed for a CFTC licence in March 2026 while also applying for sportsbook licences in Illinois, Iowa and Michigan. New venues keep arriving: Novig won CFTC designated-contract-market approval on 16 June 2026, launched nationally in 47 states on 4 August 2026 and reported more than US$125m of notional volume in its first week. On funding, Kalshi reached US$22bn in its May 2026 Series F, and Polymarket was reported on 4 August 2026 to be in talks above US$20bn; neither later round is confirmed closed[91][98][92][100][101][45][47].
    as of 2026-08
  16. 🇦🇺
    Tighter Australian rules may shift the split between licensed and illegal betting rather than the total. At PointsBet's annual general meeting on 25 August 2026, group chief executive Andrew Catterall said the offshore illegal market is equivalent to about 30% of the licensed domestic wagering market and is growing faster than the licensed one. … He also said tax and product fees, such as racing product fees, take about 50% of PointsBet's revenue and that the post-reform operating model for licensed operators becomes more complex and more expensive, and asked the government to cut off payments to offshore books through payment providers and banks (citing Canada's restrictions on data providers as a model), to force real-time takedown of unlicensed gambling ads, and to act against Australian influencers paid by offshore operators. Both the 30% figure and the causal claim come from an interested party, a MIXI subsidiary, and no independent verification is given. The 50% figure, though, is a useful measure of how much fixed burden sits on the book before any promotional spend. Measuring the effect of the reform therefore requires watching where displaced demand goes, not only licensed net win[108][79][12].
    as of 2026-08-25
  17. 🇺🇸
    Event contracts are being repackaged as investment products. Per Casino.org on 27 August 2026, Roundhill Investments filed the first prediction-market ETF applications early in 2026 and Bitwise and GraniteShares followed. … The scope has widened from political derivatives to contracts on the economy, technology-sector layoffs, crypto and oil, and climate and policy decisions; 128 NHL-linked ETFs have been filed, 32 of them leveraged. None had been approved as of August 2026, and the SEC sought comment on novel ETF structures with the window closing at the end of the month. Cornerstone Research analysts note that such funds sit between two regulatory regimes, with the SEC approving funds and the CFTC supervising designated contract markets, that several state gaming regulators assert jurisdiction over event contracts, and that concentration, liquidity, insider-trading and tax treatment are unresolved. The further the packaging moves from the look of a bet, the more open the question of which regulator protects whom[117][89][67].
    as of 2026-08
  18. 🇺🇸
    One weak month reversed in the next. Per the New York State Gaming Commission's statewide mobile sports wagering monthly report, June 2026 handle was US$2,253.6m against GGR of US$116.8m, a realised hold of 5.18%; in July 2026 handle fell to US$1,878.0m yet GGR almost doubled to US$214.4m, a hold of 11.42%. … Year on year, GGR fell 43.5% in June and rose 37.8% in July. The state's earmarked education share swung with it, from US$59.6m to US$109.3m. For the full fiscal year to March 2026 the state took US$26,158.4m of handle at US$2,598.4m of GGR — a 9.93% hold — and paid US$1,325.1m to education. A monthly swing does not show the annual hold, so a take-rate model has to be read over a year[125][113][93].
    as of 2026-07
  19. 🇺🇸
    Event contracts are now supplied from the SEC's framework as well as from CFTC-designated contract markets. Cboe lists Mini-S&P 500 Index Binary Options as SEC-regulated options, distributed through broker-dealers including Interactive Brokers, and launched its prediction product suite in June 2026. … On 25 August 2026 Kalshi asked the SEC to delay approval of Cboe binary options tied to individual line items in corporate earnings reports. Cboe chief executive Craig Donohue argues such products are securities and belong under SEC jurisdiction. When one economic function reaches the market through two frameworks, pre-listing review, disclosure duties and investor protection all differ by supplier. With ETF filings still unapproved, the jurisdictional boundary stays unsettled[127][126][117][89].
    as of 2026-08-25
  20. 🇺🇸
    Demand is thickening on the retail and the institutional side at once. On 19 August 2026 Cantor Fitzgerald began arranging block trades in Kalshi event contracts as an introducing broker, giving roughly 3,000 institutional clients, hedge funds and family offices among them, access; Susquehanna Predictions supplies pricing and liquidity. … On the retail side, Eilers & Krejcik Gaming analyst Brad Allen puts Novig at a daily average of 21 million contracts after its 4 August 2026 national launch, in a slow month for US sport. In August 2026 DraftKings pushed advertising for its prediction product in California, Texas, Georgia and Florida, none of which allows sports betting, offering US$200 in bonus trades on a US$5 deposit in California. Californian voters rejected Proposition 27 in 2022 by more than 82%, and tribal casinos, cardrooms and out-of-state operators remain divided there. DraftKings itself says 80-90% of prediction-market consumer volume is institutional or syndicate flow, yet retail acquisition is running alongside it[128][130][129][90].
    as of 2026-08
  21. 🇺🇸
    The merger of incumbent sportsbooks and prediction exchanges is now happening inside one app rather than through acquisitions. On 3 September 2026 Fanatics launched Fanatics Sports & Casino, combining sportsbook, casino and prediction markets in a single product: sportsbook in 23 states plus Washington DC, casino in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan and West Virginia, and prediction markets in 22 states and four territories, with one FanCash loyalty currency earned on bets, trades and casino play alike. … Weeks before launch the company bought a regulated exchange and clearing house from BGC Group to run the prediction infrastructure in house. DraftKings launched a comparable super app earlier in 2026. Products that sit in separate regimes -- gambling on one side, securities and commodity derivatives on the other -- appear to the user as one balance and one rewards programme. While jurisdiction is argued state by state, the boundary between the products is being erased first by operators[139][90][67][129].
    as of 2026-09-03
  22. Prediction venues have begun expanding into derivatives beyond sport. On 3 September 2026 Polymarket launched perpetual futures across 67 markets, with up to 20x leverage on crypto and selected commodities and indices and 10x on real-world assets, covering 36 stocks, 24 crypto assets, four commodities and three indices, with hourly funding capped at 4%. … US users cannot trade them: a 2022 CFTC settlement, which fined the company US$1.4m for offering unlicensed binary options, requires it to keep American customers off the international platform, and Polymarket US, registered as a designated contract market, does not list perpetuals. Sports Handle notes what pays for the build-out, putting sports contracts at about 72% of Kalshi's 2026 volume and writing that 'sports contracts still pay for everything else'. While event-contract ETF filings sit unapproved, the venues are moving toward being general derivatives exchanges on their own[144][67][127][117].
    as of 2026-09-03
  23. Public-return betting models meet the same constraints elsewhere in Asia. In its FY26 results, reported on 3 September 2026, the Hong Kong Jockey Club put its community contribution at HK$39.3bn while questioning the weight of taxation and the limits on what products it may offer. … In Taiwan, the Sports Lottery took NT$8.93bn (about US$281.18m) over the 39 days of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Both are structurally like Japan's public competitions: statute sets the takeout and the tax, and part of the proceeds goes to public purposes. Hong Kong shows that the size of the public return is, from the operator's side, a tax burden inseparable from freedom in product design. Taiwan shows that a lottery-form framework, including non-prediction products, still concentrates demand around a marquee event. Both are comparators for reading the baseball lottery NPB is studying in Japan[157][156][16][62].
    as of 2026-09-03
  24. 🇺🇸
    The investor read puts erosion of economics, not prohibition, at the centre. Per Casino.org on 3 September 2026, Jefferies analyst David Katz expects the Supreme Court could hear a prediction-markets case between November 2026 and April 2027, and identifies the largest risk not as an outright ban but as the erosion of economics through taxes, compliance costs, geofencing, product restrictions and state-by-state fragmentation. … Illinois already charges 1.75-3.5% per contract with a US$15m licence fee and in-state geolocation, a level the CFTC argues effectively operates as an outright ban at the top tier. Even if the legal status settles, state taxes and implementation duties would still lower the effective take-rate. That is the same problem a sportsbook faces with its own takeout[137][134][136][50].
    as of 2026-09-03
  25. 🇺🇸 Prediction markets are expanding as a substitute surface for sports betting. Per The Block's tally (published 3 August 2026), combined monthly volume for Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US hit a record US$50.59bn in July 2026, up 7.8% from June's US$46.95bn (June was first reported at about US$44.8bn and later revised up) — Kalshi US$37.7bn (+14%), Polymarket's main venue US$7.9bn (-26%) and Polymarket US US$5.0bn (+54%)[67][56][48]. as of 2026-07
  26. 🇺🇸 The FIFA World Cup (11 June-19 July) was the driver: Kalshi's market on the Spain-Argentina final alone drew roughly US$1.9bn and Polymarket's tournament-winner market about US$4bn. Demand is event-dependent, though — open interest across the three venues fell from about US$2bn at the start of July to US$1.2bn by month-end. The AGA estimates US$500m+ of sports-betting tax has already leaked to these venues[42][55][24]. as of 2026-07
  27. 🇺🇸 On valuation, after March 2026 reports that both venues were seeking roughly US$20bn, Kalshi reached US$22bn in its May 2026 Series F (US$1bn led by Coatue), ran at about a US$2bn annualized revenue run rate as of June, and was reported to be in talks for a round near US$40bn, which is still not confirmed closed as of 5 September 2026[33][47][45]. as of 2026-09-05
  28. 🇺🇸
    Polymarket's round did close: Casino.org reported on 31 August 2026 that Donald Trump Jr.'s 1789 Capital put in a further US$300m as part of a round of about US$1bn valuing the company at roughly US$21bn, against US$15bn four months earlier. … The same report names US$600m from Intercontinental Exchange and US$400m from a D.E. Shaw-led group, and those components add to more than the stated round size, so the exact amount cannot be fixed from that report[138].
    as of 2026-08
  29. 🇺🇸
    August state data fell back below the prior year, and the NFL opener in September pointed the other way. New York's mobile sports betting in August 2026 took US$1,731.3m of handle (down 15.3% year on year) for GGR of US$168.48m (down 5.5%) at a 9.73% hold. … Michigan took US$330.5m of handle (down 2.5%) for adjusted revenue of US$24.2m (down 29.3%); New Jersey sports betting revenue was reported down 25% and Pennsylvania's down 20%. Against that, DraftKings' chief executive said handle in the first two NFL weeks was up about 15% year on year, and FanDuel's opening Sunday was reportedly its busiest Sunday ever. August is off-season and followed the World Cup, so whether the shortfall shows substitution or seasonality cannot be judged until monthly data for the NFL season arrive[125][173][174][170][172].
    as of 2026-09
  30. 🇯🇵
    Japan's gacha rankings change with the reporting window. Sensor Tower's September 2026 Japan report says eFootball climbed six places to become the country's highest-grossing mobile game for January to July 2026, with Monster Strike second and Last War: Survival third. … 4gamer's account of the same firm's first-half (January to June) data had Last War first and eFootball third. Definitions may differ, but a strong July for eFootball appears to have changed the leader within one month. The report puts Japan's mobile game IAP over the past 12 months at more than US$10bn (¥1.56tn), down 5.1% year on year, with 585m downloads, down 5.4%, and describes a mature market that depends on established high spenders more than on new installs. Monster Strike's high rank and a shrinking overall market hold at the same time[181][78][68].
    as of 2026-07
  31. While regulation pushes commission rates down, a move in the other direction has been reported on the platform side. According to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, as relayed by 9to5Mac on 6 September 2026, Apple under new chief executive John Ternus and services head Eddy Cue is looking for ways to raise App Store margins and recurring revenue. … Reported options include ending manual app review to cut cost, raising the US$99 annual developer fee, and traffic-based fees for large developers. The report links the push to Phil Schiller's departure, but nothing has been announced and no timing is given. Even as statutory rates fall, the effective burden can change through items outside the rate card, such as membership fees or usage-based charges[178][83][82].
    as of 2026-09-06
  32. 🇯🇵
    The bitbank sale completed as planned. On 1 October 2026 SBI completed its full acquisition of bitbank through SBICAH LLC, and on the same day bitbank bought back the shares held by MIXI and Ceres as treasury stock. … bitbank therefore leaves MIXI's equity-method affiliates. The one-off gain behind MIXI's ¥11.5bn rise in net-profit guidance becomes a transaction of Q3 (October to December 2026), the quarter that contains the completion date. Full-year operating and ordinary profit guidance still implies a decline[187][95][59][29].
    as of 2026-10-01
  33. 🇺🇸
    A quantified forecast now exists for how NFL betting demand splits. Eilers & Krejcik Gaming expects NFL handle this season of US$31.7bn at traditional sportsbooks against a handle analog of US$8.4bn on prediction markets, a 79:21 split. … It adds that prediction markets are spending heavily on app-store and paid-search advertising, which could make the forecast look conservative. On actuals, Sports Handle, citing DeFi Rate data, reports that Kalshi handled about US$983m in NFL contracts in Week 1. DraftKings says volume on its own prediction product has reached about 2.5 times July's level, with more than 1 million users, and calls it incremental to the sportsbook. Because incumbent handle is growing at the same time, outside data do not yet settle how much is substitution and how much is addition[171][167][170].
    as of 2026-09
History · 7
  1. Fixed-odds betting revenue is driven by net win. In FY25 (to June 2025) PointsBet posted record revenue of A$261.4m (+6%) with an Australian net-win margin around 10.4% of stakes. In the most recent period under MIXI (the nine months to March 2026 after a year-end change), Australian handle was roughly flat at ~A$1.69bn with a 13.3% gross-win margin but net win of A$167.3m (-4%). The group posted an A$26.6m loss for that period, attributed to self-exclusion register (BetStop) costs and racing-margin pressure — making post-promotion margin defense the live challenge[11][12]. as of 2026-03 · superseded by ↓
  2. 🇺🇸 Prediction markets are expanding as a substitute surface for sports betting. Per The Block's tally (published 3 August 2026), combined monthly volume for Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US hit a record US$50.59bn in July 2026, up 7.8% from June's US$46.95bn (June was first reported at about US$44.8bn and later revised up) — Kalshi US$37.7bn (+14%), Polymarket's main venue US$7.9bn (-26%) and Polymarket US US$5.0bn (+54%). The FIFA World Cup (11 June-19 July) was the driver: Kalshi's market on the Spain-Argentina final alone drew roughly US$1.9bn and Polymarket's tournament-winner market about US$4bn. Demand is event-dependent, though — open interest across the three venues fell from about US$2bn at the start of July to US$1.2bn by month-end. On valuation, after March 2026 reports that both venues were seeking roughly US$20bn, Kalshi reached US$22bn in its May 2026 Series F (US$1bn led by Coatue), ran at about a US$2bn annualized revenue run rate as of June, and was reported to be in talks for a round near US$40bn, which is still not confirmed closed as of 5 September 2026. Polymarket's round did close: Casino.org reported on 31 August 2026 that Donald Trump Jr.'s 1789 Capital put in a further US$300m as part of a round of about US$1bn valuing the company at roughly US$21bn, against US$15bn four months earlier. The same report names US$600m from Intercontinental Exchange and US$400m from a D.E. Shaw-led group, and those components add to more than the stated round size, so the exact amount cannot be fixed from that report. The AGA estimates US$500m+ of sports-betting tax has already leaked to these venues[67][56][33][45][47][42][55][24][48]. as of 2026-09-05 · superseded by ↓
  3. 🇺🇸 US sports-betting revenue turned negative during 2026. The AGA's Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker (page updated 16 July 2026; the latest complete month at that point was May 2026) reports May sports-betting revenue of US$1.34bn, down 1.8% year on year, on handle of US$12.06bn, down 0.4%, with hold 16 basis points lower than a year earlier. Excluding the new Missouri market, handle fell 2.7%. Total commercial gaming grew 4.6%, land-based casino gaming rose 4.5% to US$4.68bn, iGaming reached US$1.03bn (+14.7%), and gaming tax revenue was US$1.53bn, up only 0.7%. In Q1 falling handle was offset by a higher hold; in May both revenue and hold fell, so the offset is not automatic[93][66][20]. as of 2026-05 · superseded by ↓
  4. 🇺🇸 June 2026 was a month in which more money staked left less margin behind. Sports Handle's tally (31 July 2026) of the 20 states that had reported by then shows US$6.8bn of handle, US$468.4m of revenue and a 6.85% hold. New York took US$2.256bn of handle for US$117m of revenue, down 43.5% year on year; New Jersey fell 37.7%, Pennsylvania 28.1% and Connecticut 57.5%. Connecticut's hold was 3.83%, and DraftKings paid out US$80.5m there against US$76.2m collected, a loss. The New Jersey attorney general attributed the fall to patron winnings on the NBA Finals and the FIFA World Cup. Only a few states, Louisiana among them at +7.3%, grew. An operator sets its price but not its realised hold, which sporting results move, so handle can rise in a month when revenue falls. Prediction markets set a record single-day volume in the same month, so demand itself did not shrink[113][42][93]. as of 2026-06 · superseded by ↓
  5. 🇯🇵 The one-off that supports the raised net-profit guidance has a schedule. On 25 June 2026 bitbank announced a basic agreement for SBI Holdings' wholly owned SBICAH LLC to acquire it outright, together with share-transfer agreements signed with certain shareholders. MIXI and Ceres are among the selling shareholders. The share transfer was set to execute around August 2026 and the transaction to complete around October 2026 after a treasury-share buyback, at which point bitbank stops being an equity-method affiliate of both companies. MIXI's net-profit guidance was raised by ¥11.5bn (¥13.5bn to ¥25.0bn), and the timing of that gain follows this completion[95][59][29]. as of 2026-07-31 · resolved
  6. 🇺🇸 July 2026's rebound was real, but the level has not returned to a year earlier. Ohio took US$624.6m of handle in July 2026, up 17.3% from US$532.3m a year before, for US$67.4m of revenue (+11.8%) at a 10.8% hold, with the World Cup the stated driver -- the US team went out in the round of 16 and Spain won the final. New York's hold in the same month came back from 5.18% to 11.42%. Weekly data is less settled. Per Covers.com, New York's handle for the week to 30 August 2026 was US$420.3m, up 10.1% week on week but down 24.7% year on year, on GGR of US$39.3m and a 9.5% hold against 11.9% in the same week of 2025. It was the state's biggest week since the World Cup, lifted by college football's Week Zero and Major League Baseball. Whether a one-month reversal reads as recovery or a continuing year-on-year shortfall reads as contraction depends on the window chosen[154][155][125][113]. as of 2026-08-30 · superseded by ↓
  7. 🇺🇸 A quantified forecast now exists for how NFL betting demand splits. Eilers & Krejcik Gaming expects NFL handle this season of US$31.7bn at traditional sportsbooks against a handle analog of US$8.4bn on prediction markets, a 79:21 split. It adds that prediction markets are spending heavily on app-store and paid-search advertising, which could make the forecast look conservative. On actuals, Sports Handle, citing DeFi Rate data, reports that Kalshi handled about US$983m in NFL contracts in Week 1. DraftKings says volume on its own prediction product has reached about 2.5 times July's level, with more than one million users, and calls it incremental to the sportsbook. Because incumbent handle is growing at the same time, outside data do not yet settle how much is substitution and how much is addition[171][167][170]. as of 2026-09 · superseded by ↓
S Social 16

Willingness to pay caps each model, and the more a model relies on chance, the more social tolerance binds. Gacha leans on a few high spenders, and purchase-screen design is becoming a regulated surface. In the US the NFL banned prediction-market ads and the main problem-gambling body now seeks tighter rules. Australia restricted advertising on harm grounds, and Japan's baseball lottery weighs funding against integrity.

  1. 🇯🇵
    Gacha revenue depends heavily on a small base of high spenders, and Monster Strike's falling MAU with rising ARPU reflects a mature 'extract more from the committed' structure. … With Japan's mobile IAP down 10% YoY in H1 2026, leaning on ARPU maps directly onto social criticism of monetization intensity. Persistent criticism of chance mechanics and spend levels, plus self-regulatory pressure on youth protection and spending caps, socially constrain how gacha revenue can be grown at all[3][13][68].
    as of 2026-06
  2. 🇯🇵
    Growing betting revenue presupposes social acceptance through 'responsible gambling'. Japan's September 2025 addiction-law amendment restricts illegal-gambling ads and celebrity endorsements, and even legal public competitions face social pressure for marketing restraint. … With keirin ticket sales at a record ¥1,548.8bn in FY2025, a larger total amount wagered amplifies addiction and chance-mechanic concerns at the same time — so expanding turnover and sustaining social acceptance can pull against each other[17][62].
    as of 2026-03
  3. 🇦🇺
    Australia's social settlement arrived in August 2026, and no side is satisfied. The Senate committee reported on 17 August 2026 with a single recommendation to pass the bills; Senator Pocock and the Greens dissented, saying the measures fall short. … Parliament passed the bill on 20 August. The amendments added an opt-out register for online wagering ads, a 14-day ban on directly marketing inducements to newly opened accounts, a three-month ban after a person leaves the BetStop self-exclusion register, limits on spend-linked commissions for VIP account managers, and a duty on operators to flag vulnerable customers. Operators including PointsBet absorb narrower acquisition tools and a new detection duty at the same time. Social acceptance still sets the ceiling on net win[79][80][102][18][12].
    as of 2026-08-20
  4. 🇺🇸
    US social acceptance of prediction markets is split. A March 2026 poll of ~15,000 adults found 81% view sports futures as gambling, 77% worry about teen access and 81% want state rules; only 8% of problem gamblers seek treatment, and helpline contacts from younger adults are reported to be rising. … Monthly volume hit a record US$50.59bn in July 2026, yet social non-acceptance persists as popular pressure for tighter regulation — growth in volume and the winning of social legitimacy are separate questions[40][39][67].
    as of 2026-07
  5. 🇮🇳
    India's paid-gaming ban won broad social backing on addiction, youth-protection and financial-harm grounds, but its social cost is large too: by some estimates ~200,000 jobs were affected, and Dream11 dropped its India national-cricket-team lead sponsorship (₹358 crore ≈ US$44m total over 2023-2026, ~₹119 crore / ~US$16m a year). … In its 2026 rulings the Supreme Court placed online money gaming outside commerce entirely (res extra commercium), denying it constitutional trade protections. A judgment about social legitimacy arrived together with the loss of employment and sponsorship economics, exposing the social fragility of billing-dependent models[32][31][73].
    as of 2026-05
  6. In Europe a social judgment expressed through age ratings has directly narrowed gacha's reachable audience. From June 2026 PEGI introduced new categories: games containing paid random items (loot boxes, gacha, card packs, randomized keys) take a minimum PEGI 16, time- or quantity-limited purchase offers take PEGI 12, and NFT/blockchain mechanics take PEGI 18. … Treating chance-based monetization as a rating-worthy factor constrains distribution and the addressable age band before any regulator acts, changing the premise for gacha revenue design in European markets[72][13].
    as of 2026-06
  7. 🇺🇸
    Prediction markets have bought sports sponsorship inventory quickly. On 30 July 2026 the New York Mets made Novig their official prediction-market partner, the first such deal with a Major League Baseball club. … Polymarket partnered with the New York Yankees on 6 August, and on 26 August Kalshi announced multi-year deals with the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants, covering stadium signage and LED boards, social, online and radio, fan activations and club-specific in-app offers, and including naming rights to the Gold Glove Bar at Dodger Stadium. Kalshi says it is in talks with MLB over a league-wide agreement and already partners with the NHL, the Chicago Blackhawks, LALIGA North America and the Argentine Football Association. In the same month of August 2026 Australia legislated a ban on wagering brands appearing on stadium signage and player uniforms. The same sports assets were opened in one market to a product whose legal status is still contested, and closed in another to an established one. Because the exposure at issue reaches crowds that include minors, the sponsorship income and the harm concern arise in the same place[106][99][79][40].
    as of 2026-08-26
  8. 🇦🇺
    In Australia, state practice now layers on top of the federal advertising rules. On 25 August 2026 the New South Wales government said it will require facial recognition at the entrances of gaming rooms in hotels and clubs, about 2,100 venues holding roughly 87,000 machines, from 2028, and will merge venue-by-venue self-exclusion into a statewide register that also accepts third-party applications from family, friends, venues and police. … It will cut machine numbers by raising the forfeiture rate on traded entitlements from one in three to one in two, ban VIP programmes outright, bar gambling advertising on government and council assets, require express consent for direct marketing, and impose transparency requirements on affiliate and influencer promotion. The package is funded with A$95.2m (about US$68.1m) over four years. Facial recognition applies only to land-based gaming machines and not to online wagering operators, but the marketing-consent and affiliate rules reach online too. For an online-only operator such as PointsBet, the constraints on acquisition and contact accumulate state by state[109][110][79].
    as of 2026-08-25
  9. 🇦🇺
    Age controls are being breached in practice. On 21 August 2026 the New South Wales regulator fined The Star Sydney and Crown Sydney a combined A$2.25m for letting minors enter. … In the same month Australia's federal law limited online wagering ads to logged-in adults, and the state set out plans for facial recognition at gaming-room entrances from 2028. The gap between the rule on paper and enforcement on the floor is both a reason youth-protection regulation may tighten further and a reason the running cost of age verification rises[119][79][109].
    as of 2026-08-21
  10. 🇯🇵
    In Japan a consumer-law review has reached the interim stage on the design of the purchase screen itself. On 24 August 2026 the Consumer Affairs Agency's study group on digital transactions and the Act on Specified Commercial Transactions presented a draft interim report. … For internet advertising it says the rules should cover displays and interfaces where an ordinary consumer cannot accurately grasp price, quantity or contract term; false information about reviews, usage, stock or time-limited sales; and 'aggressive' displays that press a person into ordering through repeated prompts or intimidating wording. Unreasonable delay in cancellation is also listed. The draft does not mention games or gacha. Time- and quantity-limited offers and stock or countdown displays are, however, standard gacha and subscription selling technique, so the same design surface that Europe's PEGI folded into age ratings is now being drawn on from the consumer-law side in Japan[123][124][13][72].
    as of 2026-08-24
  11. 🇯🇵
    The debate about a new betting object opened between a funding need and the integrity of the sport. The baseball lottery that NPB's owners agreed to study on 16 July 2026 assumes a non-prediction format in which the buyer cannot choose a winner. … NPB commissioner Sadayuki Sakakibara cited the decline in amateur participation since 2007 as the background. In late July the owners' representatives and the players' union met directly for the first time, discussed business expansion including the lottery and issued a joint statement, so the union's agreement is treated as a precondition. Japanese baseball has long refused to be an object of betting because of match-fixing risk, so reversing that stance puts the funding benefit and the social costs — addiction, youth protection and competitive integrity — on the same table[131][132][17].
    as of 2026-07-28
  12. 🇺🇸
    The claim that most volume is institutional and the acquisition tactics in the market do not point the same way. In August 2026 DraftKings said customer overlap with the largest prediction-market operator is about 1% and that 80-90% of prediction-market consumer volume comes from syndicates and institutional traders, its own internal estimate. … Yet Sports Handle's pages for 4 September 2026 carry bonus-code articles for the college-football opening week from Novig (US$25), Kalshi (US$25) and Polymarket (US$50). DraftKings itself offered US$200 in bonus trades on a US$5 deposit in California in August 2026, in a state with no legal sportsbook. Retail deposit bonuses are standard sportsbook acquisition technique, and the CFTC issued an advisory on self-certification of exactly such incentive programmes on 12 August 2026. Institutional depth and retail acquisition are growing together, so the first is not a reason to discount the social questions raised by the second[144][129][90][140].
    as of 2026-09-04
  13. 🇯🇵
    On the disclosure side, the shift in the revenue mix and the framing of the explanation sit alongside each other. On 1 September 2026 MIXI announced publication of the MIXI GROUP Integrated Report 2026, covering the year to March 2026. … The announcement says the report explains how the group creates value and its progress against its medium-term direction, and names AI and global expansion as the strategic axes across the businesses. The announcement itself does not mention chance mechanics or responsible gambling; what the full report says would need separate checking. The company entered all six GPIF-adopted Japanese equity ESG indices on 21 July 2026, and Sports became its largest segment in Q1 FY2027. As the revenue mix moves toward betting, which of external assessment or the company's own disclosure carries the chance-mechanics question is a point investors would have to verify[152][114][59][13].
    as of 2026-09-01
  14. 🇺🇸
    The dispute over injured-player contracts has moved on through league advertising policy. By 16 September 2026 the NFL had put prediction markets on its prohibited advertising list alongside tobacco and firearms, barring in-game commercials, stadium sponsorship and paid player endorsements. … Its official sportsbooks, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, may not run general brand advertising that promotes 50-state availability or event contracts. Casino.org reports that several prominent prediction platforms pulled contracts tied to player health. The league regards derivatives on injuries and officiating calls as highly susceptible to manipulation. The delisting the NFL asked for on 4 September was thus partly achieved through the league's own policy rather than CFTC action. This contrasts with MLB and the NHL, which have partnered with prediction markets[168][145][115][106].
    as of 2026-09-16
  15. 🇺🇸
    The main problem-gambling body has shifted too. In a statement on 23 September 2026, National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) board president Derek Longmeier said prediction-market users suffer real financial and emotional harm, and called for mandatory self-exclusion, age verification and clear risk warnings. … 'The harm is not theoretical, and we cannot wait to act,' he said. NCPG had drawn criticism for admitting Kalshi in May 2026 under a new 'financial services and trading companies' category and for taking US$2m in funding from it; the Michigan (July) and Nevada (August) state councils had left. Kalshi says it offers industry-leading consumer protections. The operator's description of prediction markets as trading and the specialist body's harm-based view had split inside one organisation[169][40].
    as of 2026-09-23
  16. Subscriptions tend to show comparatively stable willingness to pay where value is clear and the experience is perceived as safe. FamilyAlbum has 30m global users (40%+ overseas) and uses free unlimited storage as the funnel into premium, printing, GPS and photo-frame monetization. … Social attention to children's safety can link trust in an invite-only, non-public design to willingness to pay, though it carries the usual free-to-paid conversion constraint. On scale, the Lifestyle segment's Q1 FY2027 revenue of ¥4.363bn is about 9% of the ¥47.073bn group total, roughly a fifth of Digital Entertainment (¥19.532bn) or Sports (¥21.673bn)[15][59].
    as of 2026-06
History · 2
  1. Subscriptions tend to show comparatively stable willingness to pay where value is clear and the experience is perceived as safe. FamilyAlbum has 30m global users (40%+ overseas) and uses free unlimited storage as the funnel into premium, printing, GPS and photo-frame monetization. Social attention to children's safety can link trust in an invite-only, non-public design to willingness to pay, though it carries the usual free-to-paid conversion constraint. On scale, the Lifestyle segment's Q1 FY2027 revenue of ¥4.363bn is about 9% of the ¥47.073bn group total — an order of magnitude below gacha and sports[15][59]. as of 2026-06 · superseded by ↓
  2. 🇺🇸 Product design has itself become a harm question, and it was not settled by the start of the season. In late August 2026 Polymarket self-certified event contracts on when injured NFL players will return, listing them before the 9 September opener. In its own proposed rules the CFTC has said such contracts raise serious public-interest concerns and create perverse financial incentives that could encourage or facilitate physical harm to athletes, and that a medical diagnosis is not a manipulation-resistant basis for settlement. The CFTC did not intervene in the self-certification. On 4 September 2026, a week before the season began, the NFL wrote again to Kalshi and Polymarket over the signature of chief compliance officer Sabrina Perel, asking them to stop listing contracts on player injury status, fan safety, player misconduct, broadcast mentions and celebrity attendance, single-player outcomes such as a missed field goal or an incomplete first pass, and officiating decisions and penalty flags. The league had earlier asked the CFTC for tighter sports-contract rules. Under a regime with no pre-listing review, the judgment about what is socially acceptable is deferred until after trading starts and is left to requests between private parties[115][145][89][43]. as of 2026-09-04 · superseded by ↓
T Technological 14

Technology sets the take and the efficiency of monetization. Statutory alternative billing routes are barely used; the working channel is the link-free owned web storefront, though web-only assortment is still barred. Only operators with their own payment and identity stack can lower the effective take-rate. Agency guidance now reaches prediction-market interfaces, promotions and mention-market design, making compliance technology a fixed cost.

  1. 🇯🇵
    Public-competition revenue is structurally driven by net-voting (smartphone/app purchasing), and the tech platform controls distribution. The flip side has now been demonstrated: PIST6 in Chiba, in which MIXI is involved, depended on a proprietary system that limited ticket sales to a narrow fan base, ran at a loss from its first year, and held its last meeting on 28 September 2025; Chiba City has pushed the restart from its original spring 2026 target to fiscal 2030, a delay of about four years. … A betting app's UX, data and payments are the technical asset that expands turnover and the commission base — but without interoperability with the major betting sites, distribution closes[2][16][69].
    as of 2026-02
  2. Prediction markets are the technical fusion point of 'games x betting'. FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions run even in states without legal sportsbooks, and on 10 June 2026 the CFTC issued a 267-page NPRM permitting sports event contracts (final scores, win-loss, statistics, etc.) within limits; the 45-day comment window from Federal Register publication (12 June) closed on 27 July 2026. … Technical specs that embed score-prediction and fantasy links into apps blur the betting/gaming boundary at the implementation level, while the same technology also substitutes for incumbent fixed-odds betting[28][25][43].
    as of 2026-07-27
  3. 🇺🇸
    Prediction-market tech runs on two stacks — blockchain/crypto rails (Polymarket) and a CFTC-regulated exchange system (Kalshi) — whose 24/7, low-take order books compete with incumbent sportsbooks' fixed-odds UIs. … Combined monthly volume across the three venues hit a record US$50.59bn in July 2026 (June: US$46.95bn), and the record single day of ~US$4.8bn came on 12 June during the World Cup. After the tournament, however, open interest fell from about US$2bn to US$1.2bn — demand is tied to marquee events rather than being a standing book, which remains a design problem for the technology[34][67][42][55].
    as of 2026-07
  4. 🇦🇺
    PointsBet puts its in-house trading/risk-management platform and app technology at the core of revenue efficiency, and in Canada its iGaming (online casino) platform tech drove +28% iGaming net win and +13% Canadian revenue. … Fixed-odds gross win (13.3% in Australia) depends on odds-setting and risk-management algorithms, but in the latest period net win still fell 4% under self-exclusion-register (BetStop) compliance costs and racing-margin pressure — technical efficiency alone does not offset margin loss originating in regulation and sport mix[27][12].
    as of 2026-03
  5. 🇺🇸
    Running event contracts pulls compliance technology into the cost base. On 25 June 2026 the CFTC proposed data-reporting requirements for certain event contracts, on 24 July it issued an advisory on self-certification of an event contract series, and at state level Illinois' SB3019 mandates in-state geolocation. … On 12 August 2026 its Division of Market Oversight issued a further advisory on self-certification of incentive programmes — deposit bonuses and similar promotions — noting a rising number of Regulation 40.6(a) filings for event-contract products with procedural or substantive deficiencies, and setting out what submissions must contain. With promotional design itself inside the filing review, acquisition mechanics now carry compliance work too. For exchanges and sportsbooks alike, reporting, geolocation, age verification and promotion filings are becoming a fixed cost that eats into the effective take-rate[77][103][50].
    as of 2026-08-12
  6. 🇦🇺
    Detecting harm is becoming an implementation duty on operators. Australia's reform law requires operators to flag vulnerable customers, and on 25 August 2026 New South Wales said it will require facial recognition at about 2,100 gaming-machine venues from 2028 alongside a statewide self-exclusion register, applying to land-based venues only. … That register will accept third-party applications from family, friends, venues and police as well as the person themselves. Online operators instead face an express-consent rule for direct marketing and transparency requirements for affiliate promotion. Biometrics, identity matching and behavioural analytics ask operators to run the same family of technology they have used to optimise acquisition and lifetime value in the opposite direction, to restrain use and make exclusion reliable. Because one investment can move revenue either way, compliance technology is hard to assess on return alone[109][110][102].
    as of 2026-08-25
  7. 🇯🇵
    Out-of-app billing works only where the operator owns the payment and identity stack. MIXI built a PCI DSS-compliant payment platform in house for the Monster Strike Web Shop and authenticates through MIXI ID, its shared account with biometric and multi-factor options. … That design lets it add payment methods on its own schedule: cards, PayPay, Rakuten Pay, Amazon Pay, Paidy, atone, PayPal, and from 6 August 2026 the account-linked Minna no Ginko instant payment. Legalising external payment does not lower anyone's effective take-rate unless they can run payments, fraud control and age checks themselves[85][86].
    as of 2026-08-06
  8. 🇺🇸
    The design and presentation of event contracts is itself now regulated. In August 2026 the CFTC ran an internal review of 'mention markets', which settle on whether particular words are spoken, and Kalshi withdrew its sports-related mention markets; Dune Analytics data put their volume at about US$3.3m over the prior month. … In parallel the CFTC told all-or-nothing exchanges to stop quoting sports derivatives in American odds (the -110 format), wrote to platforms telling them not to present odds in a casino-style interface, warned them off broadly worded self-certified contracts, and sought comment on vertical integration. On 27 August 2026 Novig replaced American odds with percentages (-110 becomes 52.4%), its chief executive saying the aim is to look like the financial market it is. On 12 August the Division of Market Oversight also issued an advisory on self-certification of incentive programmes such as deposit bonuses, noting a rising number of Regulation 40.6(a) filings with procedural or substantive deficiencies and setting out what submissions must contain. Competitive terms for these venues now turn on permitted interface design, contract definitions and promotional mechanics, not only on price and liquidity[89][116][103][77].
    as of 2026-08-27
  9. 🇯🇵
    The billing routes the law opened are, in an industry survey, barely used. The survey published on 26 August 2026 by MCF and seven other bodies (30 companies, 34 responses, fielded 9 July to 7 August 2026) puts alternative app store use at 5.9% on both iOS and Android, in-app alternative payment at 8.8% for both Apple and Google, and link-out steering at 14.7% for Apple and 11.8% for Google. … External payment on the publisher's own web with no in-app steering — possible before the law — is used by 67.6%. On pre-existing in-app links to official sites, 29.4% (10 companies) had received a notice from Apple and 26.5% (9) from Google; of those, 90% (9 of 10) removed the link from the app in Apple's case and 100% (9 of 9) in Google's. MCF judges that external-payment use has been retreating during 2026. The working channel is therefore the link-free owned web storefront rather than the statutory routes, and MIXI's Monster Strike Web Shop is that type — while app-review practice on in-app links can narrow the entrance to it, which is a standing condition on any effective take-rate[121][122][85][63].
    as of 2026-08-26
  10. The reason the alternative routes go unused is more likely friction in the flow than the headline rate. In their 21 August 2026 petition to Brazil's competition authority CADE, Epic and the Coalition for App Fairness argued that installing through an alternative marketplace takes nine steps in Brazil against six in Europe, that scare screens discourage sideloading, and that reporting duties let Apple watch competitors. … The petition also cites a figure from Europe: when Apple cut the installation flow from 15 steps to six, download abandonment fell from 65% to 25%. On 18 August 2026 Apple acknowledged it may earn no commission at all from alternative marketplaces under its new EU terms. In Japan, the eight-body survey finding alternative app-store use at 5.9% while 67.6% use a link-free storefront on their own web is consistent with that friction reading. MIXI's Monster Strike Web Shop, which reached just under 50% usage through owned channels and no in-app link, is an instance of the same pattern[149][150][121][85].
    as of 2026-08-21
  11. 🇺🇸
    Regulation now reaches into the exchanges' technical requirements for price display and information control. On 7 August 2026 the CFTC issued a notice reminding markets to display clear pricing information, treating the quoting of sports derivatives in American odds (the -110 format) by all-or-nothing exchanges as the problem. … Novig dropped American odds for percentages on 27 August 2026 (-110 becomes 52.4%), its chief executive saying the aim is to look like the financial market it is. On the information side, on 28 August 2026 the CFTC ordered Gabriel Perez, a White House teleprompter operator, to disgorge US$107,539.02 and pay a US$65,000 civil penalty with a three-year trading ban, for insider trading in 'mention market' contracts on words the President might say, over conduct between December 2025 and February 2026. Running event contracts now requires meeting securities- and commodities-style technical duties, from the pricing interface to the handling of inside information[143][141][116][89].
    as of 2026-08-28
  12. 🇺🇸
    The CFTC has moved from a single sanction to general guidance on mention markets. On 22 September 2026 its Division of Market Oversight issued a staff advisory (Staff Letter No. … 26-27) on contracts about whether a person will say certain words, attend an event or interact with others. It says such contracts carry heightened manipulation risk because settlement turns on a person's conduct that may be neither independently generated nor externally verifiable. It reminds designated contract markets of Core Principle 3, which allows only contracts not readily susceptible to manipulation, and sets out factors to weigh in design. According to Casino.org the advisory creates no new obligations but encourages consultation before listing. After the 28 August insider-trading sanction, agency guidance is narrowing what product design self-certification will carry[160][183][141].
    as of 2026-09-22
  13. 🇯🇵
    A contractual ceiling remains on how far a web storefront can differ. According to MCF's opinion of 24 September 2026, Apple's compliance report states that the developer must offer the same goods or services on the linked web page, and guideline 3.1.3(b) requires multiplatform items to be purchasable as in-app purchases as well. … Digital rewards handed out through offline promotions are now allowed as an exception, but digital content sold only in a web store is still not allowed. MCF argues this breaches the smartphone act. The Monster Strike Web Shop sold a Jujutsu Kaisen collaboration gacha on the web ahead of the app, which is a timing difference rather than an exclusive. The levers for moving sales onto a publisher's own web remain payment methods and timing; web-only assortment is not available[176][85][87].
    as of 2026-09-24
  14. MIXI has added an AI companion to Monster Strike and builds AI-driven cost cuts into its guidance[1]. In Q1 FY2027 Digital Entertainment grew revenue on higher ARPU despite falling MAU, and with cost efficiency segment profit rose 39.5%. … The results release does not name AI as the source of that efficiency, so AI's share of the profit gain cannot be separated from the disclosure[59]. The market that efficiency works on is also shrinking: Sensor Tower's Q2 2026 tally puts global consumer spending on games at US$19.2bn, down 4.5% year on year, while non-gaming apps took US$24.4bn (up 14.6%, generative-AI apps up 108%) and passed games in value[147]. Cost-side efficiency slows the decline in margin; it does not offset the contraction of the spending market itself.
    as of 2026-06
History · 2
  1. With regulation opening up, D2C web payments via external links and alternative in-app billing are now technically implementable. In Japan ~70% of surveyed games reportedly already use external payment, and developers with their own direct-billing rails can compress platform fees the most. But the assessment of the JFTC's second-year compliance reports published on 27 July 2026 was that fee levels had barely improved, so how far in-house payment technology translates into a lower effective take-rate remains to be demonstrated[4][5][63]. as of 2026-07 · superseded by ↓
  2. AI works on margin from the cost side. MIXI has added an AI companion to Monster Strike and builds AI-driven cost cuts into its guidance. In Q1 FY2027 the Digital Entertainment segment lifted profit 39.5% despite falling MAU, on higher ARPU and operating-cost efficiency. The market that efficiency is applied to is shrinking, however: Sensor Tower's Q2 2026 tally puts global consumer spending on games at US$19.2bn, down 4.5% year on year, while non-gaming apps took US$24.4bn (up 14.6%, with generative-AI apps up 108%) and so passed games in value. Cost-side efficiency slows the decline in margin; it does not offset the contraction of the spending market itself. Optimised recommendation and advertising also bear on lifetime value in subscriptions and advertising[1][59][147]. as of 2026-06 · superseded by ↓
L Legal 29

Law sets the take of each model. Japan's smartphone act and the US Epic case govern app fees; the consumer agency's interim report and PEGI govern gacha purchase screens; public-competition law and Australian tax and self-exclusion rules govern betting; India's PROGA decides whether paid games exist. US prediction markets face split appeals courts, more Supreme Court petitions, state enforcement and tribal suits.

  1. 🇯🇵
    Under the smartphone law Apple re-priced fees in Japan (effective 18 December 2025, via iOS 26.2): App Store in-app purchases at 21% + 5% processing = up to 26%; alternative in-app payments at 21%; external web-link purchases at 15%; and a 5% Core Technology Commission for alternative marketplaces. … Apple says fees are 'the same or lower for 100% of Japanese developers', but coverage of the JFTC's second-year compliance reports published on 27 July 2026 reported no significant improvement in fee levels, and expert commentary has questioned whether the 5% charge on alternative marketplaces is itself anticompetitive[5][4][63].
    as of 2026-07
  2. 🇯🇵
    Google likewise extended alternative billing to gaming apps under the smartphone law and launched a program letting developers offer digital-content payments on their own websites: a 20% Play Services fee on external payments, with the service fee cut by 4% (effectively 26%) when alternative billing is chosen. … Apple and Google differ in both fee level and structure, so the effective take-rate on a Japanese app’s revenue varies by billing route and OS[30][4][63].
    as of 2026-07
  3. 🇺🇸
    In the US Epic v. Apple case, the old 27% fee was found anticompetitive in May 2025; on 11 December 2025 the Ninth Circuit capped any external-link fee at what is 'genuinely and reasonably necessary' to coordinate the hand-off, and rehearing was denied in March 2026. … Apple petitioned on 21 May 2026 and the Supreme Court granted review on 30 June 2026 — but limited to Question 1, whether a court may find civil contempt for violating an injunction's 'spirit'. It is an October Term 2026 case with briefs due 14 September and 13 November 2026 and no argument date set. Because the granted question concerns the reach of the injunction rather than the fee level itself, the permissible external-link commission stays judicially unsettled for now[6][7][60].
    as of 2026-06-30
  4. Gacha design sits inside law and self-regulation. Japan made 'kompu gacha' illegal under the Premiums Act in 2012 (the underlying 'card matching' prohibition dates to a 1977 notification), and industry self-rules (JOGA/CESA) require purchase-screen odds disclosure and discourage set-completion pressure. … The EU mandates odds disclosure, and the Netherlands and Belgium treat cash-out loot boxes as gambling. From June 2026 PEGI added new categories: paid random items push a game to a minimum PEGI 16, time- or quantity-limited purchase offers to PEGI 12, and NFT/blockchain mechanics to PEGI 18. Beyond regional differences in tolerance, the ratings route itself shrinks the sellable age band — a direct constraint on gacha revenue design abroad[13][72].
    as of 2026-06
  5. 🇯🇵
    Betting revenue is bound by gambling law and the public-competition regime. Private fixed-odds betting stays illegal under the Penal Code, legal betting is limited to public competitions plus toto, and takeout rates are set by statute. … The September 2025 addiction-law amendment further bans illegal-gambling ads and celebrity endorsements, legally tightening advertising freedom — and acquisition efficiency — even for legal operators. Even with keirin sales at a record in FY2025, that framework continues to limit the means available to expand turnover[17][16][62].
    as of 2026-03
  6. 🇮🇳
    India's PROGA, enacted in August 2025 (implementing Rules in force from 1 May 2026), criminally bans paid online games. The Supreme Court's twin 2026 judgments built the doctrine that sustains it: Junglee Games read Entry 34 of the State List so that skill games played for money fall within state regulatory power, upholding the Tamil Nadu and Karnataka bans, and Gameskraft the following day (27 May 2026, 2026 INSC 595) treated online gaming transactions as actionable claims from betting and allowed 28% GST on the full stake value, restoring show-cause notices above ₹21,000 crore. … Both placed online money gaming outside commerce (res extra commercium), stripping it of proportionality review. Final hearings on the constitutional challenge were still under way and no judgment had been reported as of 5 September 2026[22][23][73][74][75].
    as of 2026-09-05
  7. 🇦🇺
    Australian betting revenue is bound by state-by-state licensing and point-of-consumption (POC) tax, deducted straight from the take. POC rates run roughly 15-25% of net wagering revenue depending on the state (15% in NSW). … On top of that the Interactive Gambling Amendment (Gambling Reform) Bill 2026, introduced on 2 July 2026, cleared its Senate committee report on 17 August 2026 and passed on 20 August 2026. The advertising rules commence on 1 January 2027, and operators pick up a new fixed cost in the levy that funds the ACMA-run advertising opt-out register. New South Wales added a state layer on 26 August 2026 with a consolidated self-exclusion register and a ban on unsolicited contact by online operators. The Australian fixed-odds margin now sits between three legal levers: tax rate, advertising rules and state-level obligations[37][18][79][81][109].
    as of 2026-08-26
  8. Fee schedules are being rewritten by statute and by settlement at the same time. Apple published new EU terms on 18 August 2026, effective 1 October 2026: 26% on App Store billing (15% for most developers), 20% on alternative payment processing (10%), 15% on link-outs (10%), and a 5% Core Technology Commission on digital transactions in apps distributed outside the App Store. … The per-install Core Technology Fee, the initial acquisition fee and the store services fee are removed. Under its Epic settlement, Google cut the Play service fee to 20% on in-app purchases for new installs and 10% on recurring subscriptions, with 5% added where Google billing is used, and applies it to Japan and Korea by 31 December 2026. Japan's smartphone-law rates (Apple up to 26%, Google 20% on external payment) and these settlement rates will overlap in the same market[83][84][5][30].
    as of 2026-08-18
  9. 🇺🇸
    The CFTC is not the only legal entrance for event contracts. Cboe offers Mini-S&P 500 Index Binary Options as SEC-regulated options distributed through broker-dealers. … On 25 August 2026 Kalshi asked the SEC to delay approval of Cboe binary options on individual corporate earnings line items, and Cboe's chief executive says such products are securities the SEC should supervise. On the CFTC side, self-certification without pre-listing review continues; on the SEC side, approval procedures and the consultation on novel ETF structures continue. Two frameworks now sit inside one jurisdiction over the same economic function, with different pre-review, disclosure and investor-protection standards, so which one supplies a product shapes its design and its compliance cost. How either framework meets state gambling law is still unresolved[127][126][117][89][43].
    as of 2026-08-25
  10. 🇺🇸
    The federal regulator has moved to answering state civil claims directly with emergency powers. On 11 August 2026 the CFTC exercised emergency authority after KalshiEX notified it of a market emergency, triggered by New York Attorney General Letitia James's suit, in which the state sought to bar the exchange from offering event contracts and claimed more than US$36bn in damages. … Chairman Michael Selig said 'the Commission is required by law to ensure order in these markets, and that is what we have done today'. The CFTC had already ordered Kalshi under CEA section 8a(9) on 14 July 2026 to honour disputed trades. Where a state's claim is very large relative to the business, whether the business can continue may be decided before judgment, so the federal emergency power is functioning as a shield in the interim. That arrangement holds until the appellate split is resolved[142][89][57][112].
    as of 2026-08-11
  11. The EU fee dispute is closing, and the United Kingdom has become the next variable. On 20 August 2026 the European Commission said it welcomes Apple's changes to its business terms, following dialogue after a non-compliance decision on steering and preliminary findings on alternative distribution, and that it will monitor implementation. … The terms are 26% on App Store billing (15% for most developers), 20% on alternative payment processing (10%), 15% on link-outs (10%) and a 5% Core Technology Commission on digital transactions in apps distributed outside the App Store, effective 1 October 2026. On 18 August 2026 Apple acknowledged it may take no commission at all from alternative marketplaces under them. In the UK, reporting on 30 June 2026 said the Competition and Markets Authority's strategic market status designation may require Apple to allow third-party in-app payments and rivals to Apple Pay. With Japan, the EU, the US, Brazil and the UK each setting terms, gross margin on one app splits further by region[148][83][150][159].
    as of 2026-08-20
  12. 🇺🇸
    The dispute over how prediction markets are classified became an appellate split at the end of August 2026. In April 2026 the Third Circuit held that sports event contracts are 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act, so CFTC preemption bars state gambling law. … On 28 August 2026 the Ninth Circuit reached the opposite conclusion, unanimously, in Kalshi's challenge to the Nevada Gaming Control Board's cease-and-desist order: the contracts are sports bets rather than swaps, and the Act does not preempt state gambling regulation. Judge Nelson wrote that 'Kalshi's attempts to distinguish its sports event contracts from sportsbooks betting are unpersuasive'[25][44][134][135].
    as of 2026-08
  13. 🇺🇸 The injunction that had blocked Nevada's enforcement was dissolved, and state authority over election contracts was remanded to the district court. Note that reports date the Ninth Circuit decision variously to 28 and 31 August[134][135]. as of 2026-08
  14. 🇺🇸 Below, Michigan's Western District (19 June 2026), the SDNY (7 July) and Utah had all denied the platforms' motions[41][58][76]. as of 2026-06
  15. 🇺🇸 State statutes and enforcement continue to collide with the federal regulator. Arizona brought a 20-count criminal information against KalshiEX as unlicensed gambling; Kentucky moved to shut down Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase and Robinhood and imposed a 14.25% excise tax, prompting a CFTC suit on 23 June 2026 (it had also sued New Mexico on 12 June)[44][46][76]. as of 2026-06
  16. 🇺🇸 Minnesota became the first state to ban prediction markets outright under SF4760, signed 18 May 2026, making operating or advertising them a felony (up to five years, $10,000 fine) — but on 27 July 2026 Judge Katherine Menendez of the federal District of Minnesota granted a preliminary injunction blocking enforcement before the 1 August effective date[49][61]. as of 2026-07
  17. 🇺🇸 Illinois' SB3019 treats them as unlicensed sportsbooks with a 1.75% tax on the first 5m wagers (3.5% above), a $15m license fee and in-state geolocation, effective 1 July 2026; Kalshi sued on 24 June under the Supremacy Clause and the CFTC amended its own Illinois suit to challenge the transaction tax, arguing the 3.5% tier 'effectively operat[es] as an outright ban'[50][52]. as of 2026-07
  18. 🇺🇸 Judge Aquilina of Michigan's 30th Circuit issued a TRO in Nessel v. KalshiEX on 29 June 2026 ($120,000/day) and on 6 July ordered state users' trades voided and refunded; the CFTC countered on 14 July by ordering Kalshi under CEA §8a(9) to honor the disputed trades and staying its self-filed emergency rule — an unprecedented step — and as of early August 2026 the Michigan order remains in place[57][76]. as of 2026-08
  19. 🇺🇸
    State-level injunctions are accumulating one by one. On 21 July 2026 Judge John McHale of Washington's King County Superior Court preliminarily enjoined Kalshi from offering sports event contracts in the state, finding it likely offers illegal gambling under state law and rejecting the argument that the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling regulation. … The Washington order was widened on 13 August 2026 to cover the exchange's main categories, Kalshi began restricting access in the state from about 20 August, and on 21 August it asked the court to reconsider. That makes Michigan, Nevada, Massachusetts and Washington the states that have stopped Kalshi[105][120].
    as of 2026-08
  20. 🇺🇸
    New York sued on 31 July 2026 and the company called the suit 'political theatre'. On 26 August 2026 Connecticut sued Kalshi for unlicensed sports wagering and sought an injunction, announced jointly by Attorney General William Tong, Consumer Protection Commissioner Bryan T. … Cafferelli and Governor Ned Lamont; the state had issued cease-and-desist orders to three platforms in December 2025, and in Kalshi's own federal suit against Connecticut, Judge Vernon Oliver of the District of Connecticut denied a preliminary injunction, now on appeal to the Second Circuit. The CFTC, in the other direction, has sued Connecticut[112][89].
    as of 2026-08
  21. 🇺🇸 Minnesota's outright ban was enjoined by a federal court on 27 July 2026 before it could take effect. In Michigan, the Ingham County Circuit Court granted a preliminary injunction requiring Kalshi to keep geofencing that blocks state residents from its sports contracts, with US$500,000 daily fines for breach, against US$120,000 a day under the June TRO[61][146]. as of 2026-09
  22. 🇺🇸 After the Ninth Circuit's 28 August 2026 decision, Ohio, Iowa, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Utah began citing it in their own cases, while Kalshi cited parts of the same ruling for the proposition that the Commodity Exchange Act expressly preempts state law and said the courts of appeals are now openly divided. With federal preemption unresolved, availability continues to differ state by state[134]. as of 2026-09
  23. 🇯🇵
    Japan's dark-pattern rules are no longer a draft. The Consumer Affairs Agency's study group on digital transactions and the Act on Specified Commercial Transactions finalised its interim report dated 10 September 2026. … For advertising, it cites interfaces that hide the true price, quantity or contract term, false reviews, usage, stock or time-sale claims, and interfaces that press for an order through repeated prompts or intimidating wording. It says rules should cover displays that push consumers to order against their will, with administrative correction as the main response to breaches. Scope and tests are to be set in subordinate rules and guidance that list unlawful and lawful patterns, drafted in a separate forum. It asks the agency to put the system in place early but gives no date for a bill. The text does not mention games or gacha[175][123][13].
    as of 2026-09-10
  24. 🇺🇸
    Operators kept losing after the Ninth Circuit's August ruling. A federal court in Iowa refused Kalshi a preliminary injunction against state gambling oversight (reported 10 September 2026). … The Ninth Circuit reversed a district court's refusal to enjoin Kalshi in a case brought by two California tribes, Blue Lake Rancheria and Chicken Ranch Rancheria (Sports Handle dates the ruling 15 September). The tribes rely on the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. Tribal gaming rights, alongside state gambling law, have become a further ground against federal preemption. The trend of states such as Ohio and Iowa citing the Ninth Circuit ruling is now showing up in individual decisions[165][164][167][134].
    as of 2026-09-15
  25. 🇺🇸
    State enforcement has widened from lawsuits to mass stop orders. By 11 September 2026 Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection had sent cease-and-desist orders to nine operators, including Polymarket, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood and Novig, and nearly 30 subpoenas to payment firms, to the Apple and Google app stores, and to media outlets including ESPN. … In September Missouri's attorney general told six platforms, Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood, to stop. On 24 September New York sued Polymarket as an illegal gambling operation, citing trading by 18 to 20-year-olds, and sought penalties of three times illegal gains plus US$100,000 per offer. Reaching payment firms and app stores resembles Brazil's approach of controlling the channels demand runs through[163][162][161][107].
    as of 2026-09-24
  26. Courts have begun to require age checks on chance-based virtual-item purchases. In September 2026 São Paulo's Court of Justice ordered Apple, within five days, to block minors from downloading the 18+ casino-style app 'Casino Roulette: Roulettist' and to require age verification for real-money purchases of virtual chips used to keep playing, with a daily fine of R$100,000 for non-compliance. … The order also bars new casino-style apps without effective age controls. Four child-rights groups brought the suit in July 2026, arguing that minors could buy chips despite the age rating. The duty falls on the platform, not the app publisher. As with PEGI ratings and the US FTC settlement over Genshin Impact, chance-based purchases by minors are being regulated at the point of distribution[177][72][111].
    as of 2026-09-22
  27. 🇦🇺
    Australia is enforcing self-exclusion ahead of the reform law. In September 2026 ACMA fined bookmaker Dabble A$1.07m for, among other breaches, failing to close 157 accounts held by people on the national BetStop register and sending 839 electronic messages to 165 self-excluded people, and imposed a two-year court-enforceable undertaking with an independent compliance review. … Reports say penalties for similar breaches rise sharply under the new law from 1 January 2027. PointsBet operates under the same BetStop regime, and its Australian net win has softened with self-exclusion compliance costs and pressure on racing margins. Enforcement of existing rules is already a cost factor before the advertising rules begin[180][79][27][12].
    as of 2026-09-16
  28. 🇺🇸
    Petitions to the Supreme Court have multiplied. After New Jersey petitioned over the Third Circuit ruling, Crypto.com filed on 11 September and Robinhood followed. … Kalshi itself is seeking rehearing en banc at the Ninth Circuit. The Court's docket (No. 26-299) shows New Jersey's petition filed on 2 September 2026 and Kalshi's response deadline extended from 8 October to 9 November (granted 22 September). The reported first look at the petitions at the 28 September conference therefore did not happen. A Jefferies analyst expects the Court to take up the case between November 2026 and April 2027[136][166][184][137].
    as of 2026-10-02
  29. 🇺🇸
    Gacha's legal exposure is not limited to European age ratings. In January 2025 the US Federal Trade Commission settled with Cognosphere (HoYoverse), publisher of Genshin Impact, for US$20m. … The FTC said the company obscured loot-box odds and the real price of virtual currency and let under-16s spend without parental consent. The settlement bars selling loot boxes to under-16s without parental authorisation and requires age gates and parental consent, disclosure of loot-box odds and virtual-currency exchange rates, deletion of personal data collected from children under 13, and compliance with the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA). The US has no federal statute governing gacha odds directly, but the prohibition on unfair and deceptive acts under Section 5 of the FTC Act and COPPA work as the route by which odds presentation and minors' spending design are effectively policed. Separately from PEGI narrowing the sellable age band, the design of disclosure and consent is itself enforceable, a legal premise for taking a Japanese gacha IP abroad[111][13][72]. The FTC case page still lists the matter as settled, with no document filed after 17 January 2025[189].
    as of 2026-10
History · 7
  1. 🇺🇸 The dispute over how prediction markets are classified became an appellate split at the end of August 2026. In April 2026 the Third Circuit held that sports event contracts are 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act, so CFTC preemption bars state gambling law. On 28 August 2026 the Ninth Circuit reached the opposite conclusion, unanimously, in Kalshi's challenge to the Nevada Gaming Control Board's cease-and-desist order: the contracts are sports bets rather than swaps, and the Act does not preempt state gambling regulation. Judge Nelson wrote that 'Kalshi's attempts to distinguish its sports event contracts from sportsbooks betting are unpersuasive'. The injunction that had blocked Nevada's enforcement was dissolved, and state authority over election contracts was remanded to the district court. On 3 September 2026 New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court over the Third Circuit's ruling, its attorney general saying 'Congress did not silently make the sports-betting industry immune from state law'. Below, Michigan's Western District (19 June 2026), the SDNY (7 July) and Utah had all denied the platforms' motions. A Jefferies analyst expects the Supreme Court could hear the question between November 2026 and April 2027. Note that reports date the Ninth Circuit decision variously to 28 and 31 August[25][41][44][58][76][134][135][136][137]. as of 2026-09-03 · superseded by ↓
  2. 🇺🇸 State statutes and enforcement continue to collide with the federal regulator. Arizona brought a 20-count criminal information against KalshiEX as unlicensed gambling; Kentucky moved to shut down Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase and Robinhood and imposed a 14.25% excise tax, prompting a CFTC suit on 23 June 2026 (it had also sued New Mexico on 12 June). Minnesota became the first state to ban prediction markets outright under SF4760, signed 18 May 2026, making operating or advertising them a felony (up to five years, $10,000 fine) — but on 27 July 2026 Judge Katherine Menendez of the federal District of Minnesota granted a preliminary injunction blocking enforcement before the 1 August effective date. Illinois' SB3019 treats them as unlicensed sportsbooks with a 1.75% tax on the first 5m wagers (3.5% above), a $15m license fee and in-state geolocation, effective 1 July 2026; Kalshi sued on 24 June under the Supremacy Clause and the CFTC amended its own Illinois suit to challenge the transaction tax, arguing the 3.5% tier 'effectively operat[es] as an outright ban'. Judge Aquilina of Michigan's 30th Circuit issued a TRO in Nessel v. KalshiEX on 29 June 2026 ($120,000/day) and on 6 July ordered state users' trades voided and refunded; the CFTC countered on 14 July by ordering Kalshi under CEA §8a(9) to honor the disputed trades and staying its self-filed emergency rule — an unprecedented step — and as of early August 2026 the Michigan order remains in place[44][46][49][61][50][52][57][76]. as of 2026-08 · superseded by ↓
  3. 🇺🇸 State-level injunctions are accumulating one by one. On 21 July 2026 Judge John McHale of Washington's King County Superior Court preliminarily enjoined Kalshi from offering sports event contracts in the state, finding it likely offers illegal gambling under state law and rejecting the argument that the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling regulation. The Washington order was widened on 13 August 2026 to cover the exchange's main categories, Kalshi began restricting access in the state from about 20 August, and on 21 August it asked the court to reconsider. That makes Michigan, Nevada, Massachusetts and Washington the states that have stopped Kalshi. New York sued on 31 July 2026 and the company called the suit 'political theatre'. On 26 August 2026 Connecticut sued Kalshi for unlicensed sports wagering and sought an injunction, announced jointly by Attorney General William Tong, Consumer Protection Commissioner Bryan T. Cafferelli and Governor Ned Lamont; the state had issued cease-and-desist orders to three platforms in December 2025, and in Kalshi's own federal suit against Connecticut, Judge Vernon Oliver of the District of Connecticut denied a preliminary injunction, now on appeal to the Second Circuit. The CFTC, in the other direction, has sued Connecticut. Minnesota's outright ban was enjoined by a federal court on 27 July 2026 before it could take effect. In Michigan, the Ingham County Circuit Court granted a preliminary injunction requiring Kalshi to keep geofencing that blocks state residents from its sports contracts, with US$500,000 daily fines for breach, against US$120,000 a day under the June TRO[146]. After the Ninth Circuit's 28 August 2026 decision, Ohio, Iowa, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Utah began citing it in their own cases, while Kalshi cited parts of the same ruling for the proposition that the Commodity Exchange Act expressly preempts state law and said the courts of appeals are now openly divided. With federal preemption unresolved, availability continues to differ state by state[105][120][112][89][61]. as of 2026-09 · superseded by ↓
  4. 🇺🇸 Gacha's legal exposure is not limited to European age ratings. In January 2025 the US Federal Trade Commission settled with Cognosphere (HoYoverse), publisher of Genshin Impact, for US$20m. The FTC said the company obscured loot-box odds and the real price of virtual currency and let under-16s spend without parental consent. The settlement bars selling loot boxes to under-16s without parental authorisation and requires age gates and parental consent, disclosure of loot-box odds and virtual-currency exchange rates, deletion of personal data collected from children under 13, and compliance with the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA). The US has no federal statute governing gacha odds directly, but the prohibition on unfair and deceptive acts under Section 5 of the FTC Act and COPPA work as the route by which odds presentation and minors' spending design are effectively policed. Separately from PEGI narrowing the sellable age band, the design of disclosure and consent is itself enforceable, a legal premise for taking a Japanese gacha IP abroad[111][13][72]. as of 2025-01 · superseded by ↓
  5. 🇯🇵 Japanese consumer law has moved to considering a broad rule aimed by name at dark patterns. The Consumer Affairs Agency's study group presented its draft interim report at its eighth meeting on 24 August 2026, and held its ninth meeting on 2 September 2026, where the same draft and a reference pack were circulated for a secretariat briefing and open discussion; as of 5 September 2026 the text is still a draft. Looking toward amendment of the Act on Specified Commercial Transactions and related law, the draft says the rules on making a consumer order against their will should be specified and extended to cover misleading displays and interfaces in internet transactions, and aggressive ones that cause annoyance or anxiety. Because the individual techniques cannot be listed exhaustively, it proposes a broadly framed rule, with scope and tests clarified in subordinate rules and guidance — including blacklists of unlawful patterns — to keep the law predictable for business. Measures are set out stage by stage across solicitation, advertising, contracting, cancellation and digital platforms, so the reach is widest for firms that run their own payment and cancellation flows. The draft fixes no date for a bill[123][124][151][13]. as of 2026-09-05 · superseded by ↓
  6. 🇺🇸 On 3 September 2026 New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court over the Third Circuit's ruling, its attorney general saying 'Congress did not silently make the sports-betting industry immune from state law'. A Jefferies analyst expects the Supreme Court could hear the question between November 2026 and April 2027[136][137]. as of 2026-09-03 · superseded by ↓
  7. 🇺🇸 Petitions to the Supreme Court have multiplied. After New Jersey petitioned on 3 September 2026 over the Third Circuit ruling, Crypto.com filed on 11 September and Robinhood followed, asking whether sports event contracts are swaps under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction and whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of contracts on designated contract markets. Kalshi itself is seeking rehearing en banc at the Ninth Circuit. Sports Handle reports that the Court will first look at the petitions at its 28 September conference. A Jefferies analyst expects a hearing between November 2026 and April 2027[136][166][167][137]. as of 2026-09-24 · superseded by ↓
E Environmental 10

Strictly environmental questions are limited here; the axis runs on ESG, social sustainability and the utilization of physical assets. Gacha, public competitions, fixed-odds betting and prediction markets touch chance mechanics and gambling harm, which institutional investors screen for. MIXI sits in all six GPIF-adopted ESG indices and holds third-party assurance over climate data, but neither scores product-level chance mechanics. The public return rises with the amount wagered, swings monthly and does not offset addiction and youth-protection costs.

  1. Gacha's chance mechanics, loot boxes and gambling harm are treated as social-sustainability and ESG screening factors by institutional investors and ESG funds. PEGI announced expanded rating criteria in March 2026 and applies them from June 2026: a game with paid random items defaults to PEGI 16 and in some cases PEGI 18. … Youth protection is thereby embedded in standard industry practice, so scrutiny moves from formal compliance to the design itself. MIXI runs two revenue models that touch chance mechanics, gacha and betting, so how far its responsible-spend and responsible-gambling arrangements are disclosed and verified is material to outside assessments of revenue quality[13][17][72][133].
    as of 2026-06
  2. 🇯🇵
    Japan's public competitions run as a public-benefit model that returns part of proceeds to local finances and public works — the legal and social basis for betting revenue while private betting stays illegal. … MIXI operates inside this public-return structure, including comprehensive keirin-track contracts. But FY2025's record ¥1,548.8bn of ticket sales means the public return and the total amount wagered rose together: the public return does not offset the social costs of addiction, chance-driven spend and problem gambling, and the two remain coexisting concerns[16][2][62].
    as of 2026-03
  3. Expanding betting and prediction-market revenue carries the social cost of problem gambling — a social-sustainability gauge of revenue quality. In the US only ~8% of problem gamblers seek treatment, 77% of adults worry about minors' access, and helpline contacts from younger adults are reported to be rising[40]. … In Australia, concern over gambling harm underlies the reform law passed on 20 August 2026 — including a ban on betting ads around live sport — which commences on 1 January 2027[18][79]. That prediction-market volume set a record US$50.59bn in July 2026 while state criminal enforcement and federal counter-measures ran in parallel shows that rising volume does not by itself confer social license. The larger the share of betting-derived revenue, the heavier the weight that addiction, youth-protection and problem-gambling costs carry in ESG screening and social license[40][18][67].
    as of 2026-08-20
  4. 🇺🇸
    Erosion of public return is becoming a yardstick for judging betting revenue. On 28 May 2026 the AGA said its live tracker showed more than US$1bn of state and tribal revenue lost to prediction markets, and its CEO Bill Miller cited 41 state attorneys general challenging exclusive federal jurisdiction; 44 attorneys general sent a similar letter on 27 July 2026. … The AGA is the trade body for the incumbent gaming industry, so its estimate of lost tax is an interested party's claim and should be read as such. The same AGA tracker also shows gaming tax revenue of US$1.53bn in May 2026, up only 0.7% year on year[97][88][93][24].
    as of 2026-07
  5. 🇯🇵
    The chance-based weight of the revenue mix and capital-market ESG assessment are not moving on the same measure. On 21 July 2026 MIXI said it had been selected for the first time into the FTSE JPX Blossom Japan Index, and that with it the company now sits in all six Japanese equity ESG indices adopted by GPIF, Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund: FTSE JPX Blossom Japan, FTSE JPX Blossom Japan Sector Relative, MSCI Japan ESG Select Leaders, MSCI Japan Empowering Women (WIN), S&P/JPX Carbon Efficient and Morningstar Japan Equity Gender Diversity Tilt. … Over the same period the revenue mix shifted toward sports and betting, and Sports became the largest segment in Q1 FY2027. These indices screen on carbon efficiency, gender diversity and disclosure; none scores product-level chance mechanics or gambling harm directly. Index inclusion is one reading of revenue quality and does not substitute for the addiction and youth-protection questions[114][59][13].
    as of 2026-07-21
  6. 🇺🇸
    The size of the public return itself swings month to month. In New York's mobile sports wagering, the state's earmarked education share moved from US$59.6m in June 2026 to US$109.3m in July. … It comes out of GGR, GGR follows realised hold, and realised hold follows sporting results. For the full year to March 2026 the education share was US$1,325.1m, of which US$12m is fixed by statute for problem-gambling education and treatment and US$5m for youth sports grants. Funding public purposes from betting revenue therefore carries two things at once: the return is hard to forecast, and the budget for addiction services is a function of betting revenue. The same point applies to Japan's public competitions, which return part of turnover to local finances[125][16][62].
    as of 2026-07
  7. 🇯🇵
    On environmental disclosure, the scope of verification came under outside assurance for the first time. On 18 August 2026 MIXI said it had obtained third-party assurance over its climate-related information: governance, risk management and greenhouse-gas emissions for Scope 1 and Scope 2 (both market-based and location-based) for the year to March 2026, covering the company and its consolidated subsidiaries. … Scope 3 was not included. The assurance provider is Asue Veritas and this is the company's first such engagement. MIXI published its Integrated Report 2026 on 1 September 2026 and entered all six GPIF-adopted Japanese equity ESG indices in July 2026. Scope 1 and 2 are, however, a narrow measure against a business that runs arenas, velodromes and data centres, and assurance raises the reliability of the disclosure without measuring the social costs -- chance mechanics and addiction -- that arise from the revenue models themselves[153][152][114].
    as of 2026-09-01
  8. The size of the public return is, seen from the operator's side, a tax burden: they are two readings of one number. In its FY26 results on 3 September 2026 the Hong Kong Jockey Club put its community contribution at HK$39.3bn while objecting to the level of tax and the limits on the products it may offer. … Taiwan's Sports Lottery sold NT$8.93bn (about US$281.18m) over the 39 days of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In New York the education share swung from US$59.6m in June 2026 to US$109.3m in July, against US$1,325.1m for the full year to March 2026. Japan's public competitions are designed to return part of turnover to local finances and public works, and keirin ticket sales were ¥1,548.8bn in FY2025. In every one of these systems a larger public return means a larger total amount wagered, and the amount returned moves with realised hold and therefore with sporting results. An argument that justifies betting revenue by its public benefit has to be read together with both the volatility of that return and the separate social costs of addiction and youth protection[157][156][16][62][125].
    as of 2026-09-03
  9. 🇺🇸
    High-spender programmes are becoming a concrete measure of revenue quality in several jurisdictions at once. Australia's reform law limits spend-linked commissions for VIP account managers and obliges operators to flag vulnerable customers, and New South Wales proposed an outright ban on VIP programmes on 25 August 2026. … In the US, Senator Blumenthal and Representatives Tonko and Foushee wrote to FanDuel on 3 September 2026 saying its VIP programme encourages excessive gambling; the example they cite is a personalised video message from a well-known athlete sent to a customer who had lost more than US$1.5m. In the same month the New South Wales regulator fined The Star Sydney and Crown Sydney a combined A$2.25m for admitting minors. Dependence on a small number of very high spenders is a question gacha shares with betting, and in ESG screening the question of which customers the revenue comes from is being quantified by regulators before it is by disclosure[140][109][102][119].
    as of 2026-09-03
  10. 🇯🇵
    Revenue surfaces tied to physical assets face capital-efficiency and utilization questions that digital billing does not. PIST6 in Chiba, in which MIXI is involved, operated a dedicated 250m wooden velodrome yet ran at a loss from its first year, held its last meeting on 28 September 2025, and has had its restart pushed by Chiba City to fiscal 2030, about four years later than planned[69]. … B.LEAGUE PREMIER, by contrast, requires a 5,000-seat arena for entry and opened its 2026-27 season on 22 September 2026, on the calendar announced on 17 February 2026[70][10][182]. Building and running venues carries continuing energy, materials and transport footprints as well as cost, so the durability of ticket, sponsorship and media revenue is inseparable from facility utilization[69][70].
    as of 2026-09
History · 1
  1. 🇯🇵 Revenue surfaces tied to physical assets face capital-efficiency and utilization questions that digital billing does not. PIST6 in Chiba, in which MIXI is involved, operated a dedicated 250m wooden velodrome yet ran at a loss from its first year, held its last meeting on 28 September 2025, and has had its restart pushed by Chiba City to fiscal 2030, about four years later than planned[69]. B.LEAGUE PREMIER, by contrast, requires a 5,000-seat arena for entry and is scheduled to open its 2026-27 season on 22 September 2026 under the calendar announced on 17 February 2026[70][10]. Building and running venues carries continuing energy, materials and transport footprints as well as cost, so the durability of ticket, sponsorship and media revenue is inseparable from facility utilization[69][70]. as of 2026-02 · superseded by ↓

Timeline

  • 2026-11-09 Kalshi's brief in opposition due in Supreme Court No. 26-299 (New Jersey v. Kalshi), extended from 8 October; the petition was not taken up at the 28 September conference
  • 2026-12-31 Date for Google's Epic-settlement rates to apply in Korea (Japan already applied them on 30 September 2026)
  • 2027-01-01 Australia's gambling-advertising reforms commence (the bill passed on 20 August 2026)
  • 2026-10-01 SBI completes its full acquisition of bitbank; bitbank buys back the shares held by MIXI and Ceres as treasury stock, so it leaves MIXI's equity-method affiliates
  • 2026-10-01 Apple's new EU terms take effect (5% Core Technology Commission, 15% on link-outs; the Core Technology Fee, Initial Acquisition Fee and Store Services Fee end)
  • 2026-09-30 Google's Epic-settlement rates take effect in Australia and Japan (for installs on or after the rollout date; existing installs keep a separate fee table)
  • 2026-09-24 New York sues Polymarket as an unlicensed gambling operation
  • 2026-09-24 MCF publishes its opinion on the compliance reports, calling fees on alternative payments and the bar on web-only content breaches of the smartphone act
  • 2026-09-22 B.LEAGUE PREMIER 2026-27 season tips off (26 clubs, TOYOTA ARENA TOKYO; Chiba Jets in)
  • 2026-09-22 CFTC issues a staff advisory on mention markets (Staff Letter No. 26-27)
  • 2026-09-22 São Paulo court orders Apple to require age checks for virtual-chip purchases in a casino-style app
  • 2026-09-16 NFL adds prediction markets to its prohibited advertising list beside tobacco and firearms
  • 2026-09-16 ACMA fines Dabble A$1.07m over BetStop breaches and imposes a two-year undertaking
  • 2026-09-15 Ninth Circuit reverses a district court's refusal to enjoin Kalshi in a case brought by two California tribes
  • 2026-09-14 Apple's merits brief due in Apple v. Epic (US Supreme Court, October Term 2026; respondent's brief 13 November); Apple filed its brief and joint appendix on time, followed by amicus briefs including one from the United States
Earlier events · 97
2026
  • 2026-09-11 Connecticut orders nine prediction-market platforms to stop and sends nearly 30 subpoenas to payment firms, app stores and media
  • 2026-09-11 Crypto.com petitions the Supreme Court (Robinhood follows)
  • 2026-09-10 Consumer Affairs Agency study group finalises its interim report, backing rules on misleading and aggressive displays and interfaces
  • 2026-09-09 The 2026 NFL season opens with event contracts on injured players' return timelines still listed; by 16 September the NFL had put prediction markets on its prohibited ad list and some platforms had pulled contracts tied to player health
  • 2026-09-04 Taiwan's Sports Lottery reports NT$8.93bn (about $281.18m) of wagers over the 39 days of the 2026 World Cup
  • 2026-09-04 Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick calls for legislation to close prediction markets' 'loopholes'
  • 2026-09-04 The NFL writes again to Kalshi and Polymarket a week before the season opener, asking them to drop contracts on injuries, fan safety and officiating
  • 2026-09-03 Fanatics launches a combined sportsbook, casino and prediction-market app, having bought an exchange and clearing house from BGC Group
  • 2026-09-03 New Jersey petitions the US Supreme Court over the Third Circuit's prediction-market ruling
  • 2026-09-03 Polymarket launches perpetual futures across 67 markets at up to 20x leverage, with US users blocked
  • 2026-09-03 Senator Blumenthal and Representatives Tonko and Foushee write to FanDuel, saying its VIP programme promotes addiction
  • 2026-09-03 The Hong Kong Jockey Club reports an HK$39.3bn community contribution for FY26 while questioning high taxes and limits on its product range
  • 2026-09-02 Ninth meeting of the Consumer Affairs Agency's study group: the same draft interim report and reference pack were circulated for a briefing and open discussion, and the text remains a draft
  • 2026-09-01 MIXI publishes the MIXI GROUP Integrated Report 2026, naming AI and global expansion as its strategic axes
  • 2026-08-31 Polymarket's round is reported at about $1bn for a valuation near $21bn, with a further $300m from 1789 Capital, against $15bn four months earlier
  • 2026-08-31 SEC comment period on novel ETF structures closed; no prediction-market ETF approval is confirmed as of 5 September 2026
  • 2026-08-28 The CFTC orders a White House teleprompter operator to pay about $172,000 with a three-year trading ban for insider trading in mention-market contracts
  • 2026-08-28 The Ninth Circuit rules unanimously in Kalshi v. Nevada that sports event contracts are not 'swaps' and are subject to state gambling law, splitting with the Third Circuit
  • 2026-08-27 Novig drops American odds for percentage quoting, following the CFTC's notice to all-or-nothing exchanges
  • 2026-08-26 Connecticut sues Kalshi for unlicensed sports wagering and seeks an injunction
  • 2026-08-26 DraftKings steps up advertising for its prediction product in California and other states without legal sports betting
  • 2026-08-26 Kalshi signs multi-year deals with five MLB clubs (Braves, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants) and says it is in talks for a league-wide agreement
  • 2026-08-26 MCF and seven other bodies publish an industry survey and opinion, asking the JFTC to investigate Apple and Google for breaching the smartphone act
  • 2026-08-26 Polymarket self-certifies event contracts on the return timelines of injured NFL players
  • 2026-08-25 Kalshi asks the SEC to delay approval of Cboe binary options tied to corporate earnings line items
  • 2026-08-25 New South Wales announces an A$95.2m four-year gaming-machine reform package (facial recognition from 2028, VIP programmes banned); at PointsBet's AGM the chief executive says tax and product fees take about 50% of revenue
  • 2026-08-24 The Consumer Affairs Agency's study group (8th meeting) presents its draft interim report, including a broad rule against dark patterns
  • 2026-08-21 Epic and the Coalition for App Fairness petition Brazil's CADE, arguing alternative distribution takes nine install steps against six in Europe
  • 2026-08-21 Kalshi asks the Washington Superior Court to reconsider its injunction; the NSW regulator fines The Star Sydney and Crown Sydney a combined A$2.25m over underage entry
  • 2026-08-20 Australia's parliament passes the Interactive Gambling Amendment (Gambling Reform) Bill 2026, adding the ad opt-out register and inducement rules
  • 2026-08-20 The CFTC holds the first meeting of its Innovation Advisory Committee; CME cites 2,500 unopposed self-certifications and Chairman Selig sets out a three-part roadmap
  • 2026-08-20 The European Commission says it welcomes Apple's new business terms and will monitor implementation
  • 2026-08-19 Cantor Fitzgerald begins arranging block trades in Kalshi event contracts for about 3,000 institutional clients
  • 2026-08-18 Apple publishes new EU terms, replacing the Core Technology Fee with a 5% Core Technology Commission (effective 1 October)
  • 2026-08-18 MIXI obtains its first third-party assurance over climate-related information (governance, risk management, Scope 1 and 2)
  • 2026-08-17 Australia's Senate Environment and Communications Committee reports on the gambling reform bill with a single recommendation to pass; Pocock and the Greens dissent
  • 2026-08-14 Apple files a new external-link fee schedule with the Northern District of California: 15% standard, 5% Small Business Program, 10% for partner programmes
  • 2026-08-13 A Washington state court blocks Kalshi's main markets, making Washington the fourth state to stop the exchange
  • 2026-08-12 The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issues an advisory on self-certification of incentive programmes
  • 2026-08-11 Sensor Tower's Q2 2026 tally is reported: consumer spending on games $19.2bn (-4.5%) falls below non-gaming apps at $24.4bn (+14.6%)
  • 2026-08-11 The CFTC exercises emergency authority after KalshiEX reports a market emergency triggered by the New York attorney general's suit, which claims more than $36bn in damages
  • 2026-08-07 DraftKings reports $11bn annualised prediction volume (from $2.3bn in April) and ~1% customer overlap; Flutter moves FanDuel Predicts from CME to Crypto.com
  • 2026-08-07 The CFTC issues a notice reminding markets to display clear pricing information, aimed at American-odds quoting
  • 2026-08-06 Polymarket partners with the New York Yankees
  • 2026-08-06 The Monster Strike Web Shop adds Minna no Ginko account-linked instant payment
  • 2026-08-04 Australia's ASIC issues its strongest warning yet on offshore prediction markets, stating they are illegal in Australia and outside financial-services protection
  • 2026-08-04 Novig launches nationally across 47 states; first-week notional volume is reported above $125m
  • 2026-08-03 July 2026 prediction-market monthly volume reported at a record $50.59bn (Kalshi $37.7bn)
  • 2026-07-31 MIXI reports Q1 FY2027 (revenue ¥47.07bn, +50.3%; Sports becomes the largest segment; full-year net-profit guidance raised to ¥25.0bn)
  • 2026-07-31 New York sues Kalshi, calling it an illegal gambling operation
  • 2026-07-30 IG Group agrees to buy Underdog for $1.1bn upfront plus an earnout of about $200m, up to $1.3bn
  • 2026-07-30 Sensor Tower's H1 2026 report: global game IAP $40bn (-2%), Japan -10%, downloads -12%
  • 2026-07-30 The New York Mets sign a multi-year deal with Novig, the first MLB club to name an Official Prediction Market Partner
  • 2026-07-28 Attorneys general from 44 states write to the CFTC denying its authority over sports-related event contracts (the CFTC has already sued nine states)
  • 2026-07-28 NPB owners' representatives and the players' union hold their first direct meeting and issue a joint statement (Sports Hochi dates the meeting 27 July, Kyodo 28 July)
  • 2026-07-27 JFTC publishes the second-year smartphone-law compliance reports; commentary finds little improvement in fee levels
  • 2026-07-27 Judge Menendez of the federal District of Minnesota enjoins the state's prediction-market ban, halting enforcement before the 1 August effective date
  • 2026-07-27 The comment period on the CFTC's prediction-market NPRM (45 days) closes
  • 2026-07-21 Judge McHale of Washington's King County Superior Court preliminarily enjoins Kalshi's sports event contracts
  • 2026-07-21 MIXI enters the FTSE JPX Blossom Japan Index for the first time, completing all six GPIF-adopted Japanese equity ESG indices
  • 2026-07-19 FIFA World Cup final (Spain vs Argentina); Kalshi's market on the final alone drew about $1.9bn
  • 2026-07-16 NPB's owners meeting agrees to study a non-prediction baseball lottery covering professional baseball
  • 2026-07-14 CFTC orders Kalshi under CEA §8a(9) to honor the disputed trades and stays its emergency rule, countering the state court order in an unprecedented move
  • 2026-07-07 SDNY Judge Torres denies Kalshi's injunction in its home state of New York; Kalshi appeals to the Second Circuit (NV/NJ favor Kalshi, MD/MA the states)
  • 2026-07-02 Australia introduces the Interactive Gambling Amendment (Gambling Reform) Bill 2026; referred to the Senate Environment and Communications Committee (report due 17 Aug)
  • 2026-07-01 Illinois prediction-market transaction tax (SB3019, 1.75-3.5%) takes effect as Kalshi's and the CFTC's suits remain pending
  • 2026-06-30 Google's Epic-settlement rates take effect in the EEA, UK and US (Australia 30 September; Japan and Korea by 31 December)
  • 2026-06-30 US Supreme Court grants certiorari in Apple v. Epic, limited to whether civil contempt may rest on an injunction's 'spirit' (October Term 2026)
  • 2026-06-29 Michigan's 30th Circuit Court issues a TRO in Nessel v. KalshiEX barring sports betting to state residents ($120k/day; 6 July order to void and refund trades)
  • 2026-06-25 bitbank agrees to be acquired outright by SBI Holdings; MIXI and Ceres sign share-transfer agreements, with completion expected around October 2026
  • 2026-06-24 Kalshi sues Illinois (SB3019 treats prediction markets as unlicensed sportsbooks: 1.75-3.5% tax, $15m license, effective 1 July)
  • 2026-06-23 CFTC sues Kentucky to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction (it had also sued New Mexico on 12 June)
  • 2026-06-23 Cboe launches its prediction product suite with SEC-regulated binary options
  • 2026-06-19 Michigan federal judge denies Polymarket injunction, ruling sports contracts outside CFTC authority and subject to state law (split deepens)
  • 2026-06-16 The CFTC grants Novig designated-contract-market status
  • 2026-06-15 bitbank warns it will suspend accounts on transfers tied to decentralised prediction markets, noting domestic use may amount to gambling
  • 2026-06-12 FIFA World Cup (opened 11 June) drives a record ~$4.8bn single-day prediction-market volume on 12 June, when the US and Canada played their first matches
  • 2026-06-10 CFTC issues 267-page prediction-market NPRM (sports contracts allowed within limits; comments due 27 July 2026, 45-day period)
  • 2026-06 Apple opens alternative marketplaces and out-of-App-Store payment in Brazil after its CADE process, with a 5% Core Technology Commission on outside distribution
  • 2026-05-28 AGA says its live tracker shows more than $1bn of state and tribal revenue lost to prediction markets
  • 2026-05-27 India's Supreme Court decides Gameskraft (2026 INSC 595), applying 28% GST retrospectively on full stake value and restoring ₹21,000 crore+ of notices
  • 2026-05-18 Minnesota signs SF4760, the first US outright prediction-market ban (operating/advertising a felony, effective 1 Aug); CFTC sues same day
  • 2026-05-01 India's PROGA implementing Rules take effect (Act enacted Aug 2025; Dream11 halted paid contests then)
  • 2026-05 MIXI reports FY2026 results and FY2027 guidance (Sports +63.8%, FY27 revenue target ¥185bn)
  • 2026-04-07 Third Circuit rules sports event contracts are 'swaps', upholding CFTC federal preemption
  • 2026-04-02 Australia announces its biggest gambling reform package in two decades (A$112.7m)
  • 2026-04-01 Keirin's FY2025 ticket sales reach a record ¥1,548.8bn (+16.6%), above ¥1.5tn for the first time in 28 years
  • 2026-03-17 MIXI reports Monster Strike Web Shop usage of just under 50% in Q3, up from just over 20% a year earlier, with no in-app link steering
  • 2026-03-05 Dentsu reports 2025 Japan ad spend (internet ads over half for first time, ¥4.05tn)
  • 2026-03-04 Google announces its Epic settlement, cutting the Play service fee to 20% on in-app purchases for new installs and 10% on recurring subscriptions (plus 5% with Google billing)
  • 2026-03 Senators Schiff and Curtis introduce the 'Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act'
  • 2026-02-05 Chiba City says PIST6's restart is pushed back about four years, to fiscal 2030
  • 2026-02 AGA reports record 2025 US commercial gaming (GGR $78.7bn, sports-betting revenue $16.96bn)
2025
  • 2025-12-18 Japan's Mobile Software Competition Act takes effect, opening Apple/Google billing (Google 20% Play Services fee)
  • 2025-12-11 Ninth Circuit lets Apple charge a limited external-link fee (old 27% barred)
  • 2025-09-28 PIST6 in Chiba holds its final meeting and suspends operations (restart later deferred to fiscal 2030)
  • 2025-09 MIXI completes PointsBet takeover, consolidating betting net-win revenue

Entities

  • MIXI, Inc.Company
  • Monster Strike (モンスト)Product
  • FamilyAlbum (家族アルバム みてね)Product
  • TIPSTAR / Chari-Roto / public competitionsProduct
  • PointsBet HoldingsCompany
  • Chiba Jets / FC TokyoCompany
  • Mobile Software Competition Act (スマホ新法)Regulation
  • Japan Fair Trade Commission (公正取引委員会)Government
  • Apple App Store / Google PlayTech
  • Epic v. Apple (Ninth Circuit / SCOTUS)Regulation
  • B.LEAGUE PREMIER (B.革新)Market
  • Dentsu — Advertising Expenditures in JapanMarket
  • Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act (PROGA, India)Regulation
  • Junglee Games / Gameskraft (Supreme Court of India, 2026)Regulation
  • Dream11 / Dream SportsCompany
  • Kalshi / PolymarketMarket
  • FanDuel / DraftKings (Flutter)Company
  • American Gaming Association (AGA)Market
  • U.S. CFTCGovernment
  • Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act (Schiff/Curtis)Regulation
  • Interactive Gambling Amendment (Gambling Reform) Bill 2026 (Australia)Regulation
  • PEGI (Pan European Game Information)Regulation
  • Sensor TowerMarket
  • Monster Strike Web Shop (モンストWebショップ)Product
  • NovigCompany
  • IG Group / UnderdogCompany
  • SmarketsCompany
  • ACMA — Wagering Advertising Opt-out RegisterGovernment
  • bitbank / SBI HoldingsCompany
  • NSW gaming reform package (2026)Regulation
  • Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas (Brazil)Government
  • GPIF ESG equity indicesMarket
  • MCF ほか8団体（アプリ事業者団体）Market
  • 消費者庁 デジタル取引・特定商取引法等検討会Government
  • Cboe Global Markets / Nasdaq (event contracts)Market
  • Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) — 野球くじ検討Market
  • New York State Gaming Commission — mobile sports wagering reportsGovernment
  • Kalshi v. Nevada (Ninth Circuit) / Kalshi v. New Jersey (Third Circuit)Regulation
  • Fanatics Sports & CasinoCompany
  • Hong Kong Jockey Club / Taiwan Sports LotteryMarket
  • National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG)Company
  • Crypto.com / Robinhood (sports event contracts)Company
  • Tribal gaming (IGRA) — Blue Lake Rancheria / Chicken Ranch RancheriaGovernment
Sources· 189
  1. [1] Earnings call transcript: Mixi Inc. beats Q4 2026 earnings expectations — Investing.com, 2026-05
  2. [2] MIXI、26年3月期決算はスポーツベッティング事業を手掛けるPointsBet社の新規連結で売上高10％増 — gamebiz, 2026-05
  3. [3] Monster Strike surpasses $11bn in 11 years with Japanese dominance — PocketGamer.biz (Sensor Tower data), 2024-12
  4. [4] Starting Up the Competition: Japan's Mobile Software Act — Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2026
  5. [5] Japan App Store Gets Alternative Marketplaces, Third-Party Payments and More — MacRumors, 2025-12
  6. [6] Apple Wins Ability to Charge Fees on External Payment Links as Appeals Court Modifies Epic Injunction — MacRumors, 2025-12
  7. [7] Apple moves to take its App Store fight back to the Supreme Court — TechCrunch, 2026-04
  8. [8] 2025 Advertising Expenditures in Japan — DENTSU INC., 2026-03
  9. [9] B.LEAGUE 2024-25シーズン（2024年度）クラブ決算概要 — B.LEAGUE (Japan Professional Basketball League), 2025
  10. [10] 【公式】REGULATION | 「B.革新」特設サイト — B.LEAGUE, 2026
  11. [11] PointsBet reduces net loss in FY25, MIXI edges closer to takeover — iGaming Business, 2025-08
  12. [12] PointsBet slips to $19.2 million loss as Australian revenue weakens after MIXI takeover — Yogonet International, 2026-05
  13. [13] Navigating the regulatory maze: A global guide to loot boxes in video gaming — DLA Piper, 2025
  14. [14] The 15% App Store Fee: A Guide for Developers — RevenueCat, 2026
  15. [15] 「家族アルバム みてね」世界累計利用者数が3,000万人突破！ — MIXI, Inc., 2026-05
  16. [16] 競馬の還元率を総まとめ！馬券別の控除率や他ギャンブルと数値を比較 — 競馬ナビ (m-jockey), 2025
  17. [17] Japan's revised gambling addiction law takes aim at source of scourge — The Japan Times, 2025-09
  18. [18] Gambling Reforms 2026 — Australian Government, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications, Sport and the Arts, 2026-04
  19. [19] MIXI、『モンスト』11周年を記念して獣神化・コラボ・ガチャ・キャンペーンなど発表 — gamebiz, 2024-09
  20. [20] Sports betting hits record $16.96 billion in revenue in 2025 — ESPN (AGA data), 2026-02
  21. [21] Commercial Gaming Revenue Hits $78.7 Billion in 2025, Driving Record $18.1 Billion in Gaming Taxes Nationwide — American Gaming Association (via PR Newswire), 2026-02
  22. [22] India's Online Gaming Revolution: A Complete Guide to Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming w.e.f May 1, 2026 — TaxGuru, 2026-04
  23. [23] India's Dream11, top gaming apps halt money-based games after ban — AOL / Reuters, 2025-08
  24. [24] Polymarket and Kalshi Became the New Sports-Betting Story — Crypto Daily, 2026-06
  25. [25] Rewriting the Rulebook: CFTC's Public Interest Determination Proposal for Prediction Markets — National Law Review, 2026-06
  26. [26] 【競輪】2024年度の全国車券売上額や入場者数 — netkeirin (netkeiba), 2025
  27. [27] Canadian iGaming Segment Boosts PointsBet's Financial Performance — Casino.org, 2026-05
  28. [28] FanDuel jumps into prediction markets with new app — CNN Business, 2026-04
  29. [29] Earnings call transcript: Mixi Q4 2026 earnings beat expectations, stock dips — Investing.com (UK), 2026-05
  30. [30] Google and Apple face Japan's toughest mobile platform rules yet — PPC Land, 2025-12
  31. [31] Asia Cup: India lose shirt sponsor after online betting games ban — Al Jazeera, 2025-09
  32. [32] From Dream11 to Despair: How India's Gaming Ban Killed 200,000 Jobs — NewsGram, 2026-01
  33. [33] Kalshi, Polymarket Seeking $20 Billion Valuations in Fundraising Talks — CoinDesk, 2026-03
  34. [34] How Prediction Markets Scaled to USD 21B in Monthly Volume in 2026 — TRM Labs (Binance Research data), 2026-06
  35. [35] みてねプレミアムは必要？料金・できること・無料との違いを徹底解説！ — 家族の思い出保管ラボ, 2025
  36. [36] Australia Introduces Controversial Gambling Advertising Reforms — Covers.com, 2026-04
  37. [37] Point of consumption tax — Revenue NSW, 2026
  38. [38] State of Japan Gaming 2025 — Sensor Tower, 2025
  39. [39] What Could 2026 Bring For Sports Prediction Markets? — Legal Sports Report, 2026
  40. [40] Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest US Test in 2026 — RG.org, 2026-04
  41. [41] Michigan Judge Says Sports Prediction Markets Outside CFTC Authority — Sportsbook Review, 2026-06
  42. [42] Polymarket vs Kalshi: Where are Fans Placing Their FIFA World Cup Predictions? — Yahoo Finance, 2026-06
  43. [43] CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Concerning Event Contracts Involving Enumerated Activities — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), 2026-06
  44. [44] Prediction markets at a crossroads: preemption, enforcement and rulemaking — Norton Rose Fulbright, 2026-06
  45. [45] Kalshi seeks funding at $40 billion valuation, widening lead over rival Polymarket — CoinDesk, 2026-06
  46. [46] CFTC sues Kentucky over prediction market lawsuits — The Hill, 2026-06
  47. [47] Kalshi doubles valuation in 5 months, hitting $22B — TechCrunch, 2026-05
  48. [48] Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi Volume (Monthly) — The Block, 2026-08
  49. [49] Minnesota becomes first state to outlaw prediction markets, immediately sued by federal regulators — Minnesota Reformer, 2026-05
  50. [50] Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets — Capitol News Illinois, 2026-06
  51. [51] Japan gaming market in 2025 — games.gg, 2025
  52. [52] CFTC Expands Illinois Lawsuit to Target New Prediction Market Tax — Covers.com, 2026-06
  53. [53] India bans real-money gaming, threatening a $23 billion industry — TechCrunch, 2025-08
  54. [54] India government values the online gaming market at ₹23,200 crore — TalkEsport, 2026
  55. [55] 2026 FIFA World Cup — Wikipedia, 2026
  56. [56] Kalshi and Polymarket's combined volume surges 75% to $45 billion in June amid World Cup fever — The Block, 2026-07
  57. [57] CFTC Stays Kalshi Emergency Rule, Directs Exchange to Honor Trades in Unprecedented Exercise of Federal Authority — Government Enforcement, Compliance & Investigations Report, 2026-07
  58. [58] Kalshi Denied Preliminary Injunction in Home State New York — SBC Americas, 2026-07
  59. [59] MIXI、27年3月期第1四半期は全セグメントで増収増益 — gamebiz, 2026-07-31
  60. [60] Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc. (No. 25-1311) — SCOTUSblog, 2026-06-30
  61. [61] Judge blocks Minnesota from implementing novel prediction markets ban — Reuters, 2026-07-27
  62. [62] 競輪の2025年度総車券売上高は1兆5487億8116万円、前年度比116.6% — netkeirin (netkeiba), 2026-04-01
  63. [63] スマートフォンにおいて利用される特定ソフトウェアに係る競争の促進に関する法律に基づく遵守状況報告書等 — Japan Fair Trade Commission (公正取引委員会), 2026-07-27
  64. [64] Interactive Gambling Amendment (Gambling Reform) Bill 2026 — Parliament of Australia, 2026-07
  65. [65] Interactive Gambling Amendment (Gambling Reform) Bill 2026 and a related bill — Parliament of Australia, Senate, 2026-07
  66. [66] AGA Tracker Reveals Q1 2026 Commercial Gaming Totals Amid Shifting Sports Betting Patterns — Online Betting Guides (AGA Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker data), 2026-06-03
  67. [67] Kalshi and Polymarket volume hits record $50.59 billion in July — The Block, 2026-08-03
  68. [68] Mobile gaming IAP dipped 2% as ad spend climbed in H1 2026 — PocketGamer.biz (Sensor Tower H1 2026 Gaming Digital Market Index), 2026-07-30
  69. [69] PIST6、2021年10月開始も休止中 再開は2030年度へ後ろ倒し — 日刊スポーツ (Nikkan Sports), 2026-02-05
  70. [70] B.革新初年度となる、りそなグループ B.LEAGUE 2026-27シーズン B.PREMIER、B.ONE、B.NEXTの全カーディングが決定！ — B.LEAGUE, 2026-02-17
  71. [71] Fanatics, PointsBet Close $225M Acquisition Of US Assets — Legal Sports Report, 2023
  72. [72] Games With Loot Boxes Now Get PEGI 16 Rating Starting June 2026 — Wccftech, 2026
  73. [73] From Skill to Stakes: How Junglee Games and Gameskraft Reshape India's Online Gaming Laws — Supreme Court Observer, 2026
  74. [74] Gameskraft: Supreme Court upholds 28% GST on online gaming and casinos — Legal Republic, 2026-05-27
  75. [75] Supreme Court advances challenge to India's online gaming law — Asia Gaming Brief, 2026-08-06
  76. [76] Summary of legal actions involving Kalshi's sports event contracts — Mick Bransfield, 2026-08-07
  77. [77] CFTC Press Releases — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), 2026-08
  78. [78] 2026年上半期の日本モバイルゲーム市場動向 — 4Gamer.net (Sensor Tower data), 2026-07-14
  79. [79] Australian Parliament passes Interactive Gambling Amendment Bill — gamingintelligence.com, 2026-08-20
  80. [80] Government agrees to ad opt-out register in deal with Coalition to pass gambling reforms — ABC News, 2026-08-17
  81. [81] Australian government and Coalition opposition agree to gambling ad opt-out register — Yogonet, 2026-08-18
  82. [82] Apple proposes to take a 15% cut of purchases made outside the App Store — TechCrunch, 2026-08-14
  83. [83] Apple announces changes for apps in the European Union — Apple Newsroom, 2026-08-18
  84. [84] Google settles with Epic Games, drops its Play Store commissions to 20% — TechCrunch, 2026-03-04
  85. [85] MIXI アプリ外課金の「モンストWebショップ」、 利用率５割弱まで増加 MIXI が認知向上に向けてマーケティングを強化 — ペイメントナビ, 2026-03-17
  86. [86] MIXI「モンストWebショップ」で「みんなの銀行かんたん決済」提供 — ペイメントナビ, 2026-08-07
  87. [87] MIXI、『モンスターストライク』でTVアニメ「呪術廻戦」コラボ第3弾を26年7月14日12時より開催 — gamebiz, 2026-07-14
  88. [88] 44 states are aligned on one thing in their fight against prediction markets. It's about sports wagering — CNBC, 2026-07-28
  89. [89] Prediction markets scrutiny mounts from regulators and banks — CNBC, 2026-08-14
  90. [90] Prediction markets take center stage in latest round of quarterly earnings reports — CNBC, 2026-08-07
  91. [91] Underdog Bought by IG Group in Deal Worth Up to $1.3B — Casino.org, 2026-07-30
  92. [92] Novig Launches Sports Prediction Market Nationwide — Casino.org, 2026-08-06
  93. [93] Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker — American Gaming Association, 2026-07-16
  94. [94] ビットバンク、分散型予測市場の国内利用で口座停止措置も　賭博行為リスクを懸念 — CoinPost, 2026-06-15
  95. [95] SBIグループ、ビットバンクを完全子会社化へ — CoinPost, 2026-06-25
  96. [96] Prediction markets 'akin to gambling', corporate regulator warns — ABC News, 2026-08-04
  97. [97] AGA: Prediction Markets Pilfering $1B+ in Tax Revenue from States, Tribes — Casino.org, 2026-05-28
  98. [98] Prediction markets and sports betting: How this UK exchange is trying to do both in the U.S. — CNBC, 2026-08-15
  99. [99] New York Mets, Novig Announce Prediction Market Partnership — Casino.org, 2026-07-31
  100. [100] Novig wins CFTC approval as competition intensifies in sports prediction markets — CNBC, 2026-06-16
  101. [101] Polymarket in talks for fundraising round at more than $20 billion valuation — CNBC, 2026-08-04
  102. [102] Gambling reforms put onus on bookies to flag vulnerable punters — ABC News, 2026-08-19
  103. [103] CFTC Releases Advisory on Self-Certification of Incentive Programs for Prediction Markets — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), 2026-08-12
  104. [104] CME, Kalshi clash over prediction market rules at first CFTC advisory meeting — Yogonet International, 2026-08-21
  105. [105] Washington Judge grants preliminary injunction against Kalshi — gamingintelligence.com, 2026-07-21
  106. [106] Kalshi locks in marketing deals with five MLB franchises — Yogonet International, 2026-08-26
  107. [107] Beneficiários de programas sociais não conseguem mais abrir conta em site de apostas — Ministério da Fazenda (Brazil), 2026-08-20
  108. [108] PointsBet urges payment curbs and faster takedowns on illegal betting ads in Australia — Yogonet International, 2026-08-25
  109. [109] New South Wales government prioritising player protection in sweeping gambling reform proposals — iGaming Business, 2026-08-25
  110. [110] Australia: New South Wales government to mandate facial recognition in gaming rooms from 2028 — Yogonet International, 2026-08-26
  111. [111] Hoyoverse agrees to $20 million settlement with FTC over loot boxes — PocketGamer.biz, 2025-01-21
  112. [112] Connecticut Sues Kalshi to Stop Illegal, Unlicensed Sports Betting — Office of the Attorney General, State of Connecticut, 2026-08-26
  113. [113] Did Americans Bet on the World Cup, and Were They Successful? — Sports Handle, 2026-07-31
  114. [114] MIXI、「FTSE JPX Blossom Japan Index」の構成銘柄に初選定 — MIXI, Inc., 2026-07-21
  115. [115] Polymarket Self-Certifies NFL Injury Event Contracts, Derivatives May Be Counter to CFTC Rules — Casino.org, 2026-08-26
  116. [116] Novig Eliminates American Odds in Effort to Lift 'Financial Market' Appeal — Casino.org, 2026-08-27
  117. [117] Prediction Market ETFs Have Lots of Questions to Answer — Casino.org, 2026-08-27
  118. [118] Cerca de 800 mil pessoas estão impedidas de apostar após renegociação de dívidas — Ministério da Fazenda (Brazil), 2026-08-13
  119. [119] The Star Sydney and Crown Sydney fined for underage entries — iGaming Business, 2026-08-21
  120. [120] Kalshi asks Washington State Superior Court to reconsider preliminary injunction — gamingintelligence.com, 2026-08-21
  121. [121] 【速報版】Apple、Google の新規約（スマホ法施行後）の利用状況アンケートの集計結果のご報告 — モバイル・コンテンツ・フォーラム（MCF）ほか8団体, 2026-08-26
  122. [122] スマホソフトウェア競争促進法の全面施行に伴う、Apple、Googleの代替アプリストアに関する新規約等に対するMCF意見 — モバイル・コンテンツ・フォーラム（MCF）, 2026-08-26
  123. [123] 第8回デジタル取引・特定商取引法等検討会(2026年08月24日) — 消費者庁 (Consumer Affairs Agency), 2026-08-24
  124. [124] （資料2-1）中間取りまとめ（案） — 消費者庁 デジタル取引・特定商取引法等検討会, 2026-08-24
  125. [125] Statewide Sports Wagering Monthly Report — New York State Gaming Commission, 2026-08
  126. [126] Kalshi Asks SEC to Slow Product Launches From Rival Cboe — PYMNTS, 2026-08-25
  127. [127] Prediction Markets — Cboe Global Markets, 2026-08
  128. [128] Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi's Event Contracts to Roughly 3,000 Institutional Clients — Finance Magnates, 2026-08-19
  129. [129] DraftKings Aggressively Markets Prediction Platform in California, Sports Betting's Holy Grail — Casino.org, 2026-08-26
  130. [130] Novig Volume Rapidly Tops Some Big Prediction Market Names — Casino.org, 2026-08-25
  131. [131] 【ＮＰＢ】オーナー会議で「野球くじ」導入の議論開始　「非予想系を前提」中学部活動支援のための「財源確保」が目的 — スポーツ報知 (Sports Hochi), 2026-07-16
  132. [132] １２球団オーナーと日本プロ野球選手会が異例の「共同声明」　初の直接会談で野球くじなど協議　「野球界全体の裾野の拡大」「連携と協力を深めていく」 — スポーツ報知 (Sports Hochi), 2026-07-28
  133. [133] PEGI expands age rating criteria with interactive risk categories — PEGI, 2026-03-12
  134. [134] Other States Seize on Nevada's Prediction Market Triumph — Covers.com, 2026-09-01
  135. [135] Court of Appeals sides with Nevada in prediction markets dispute — gamingintelligence.com, 2026-09-01
  136. [136] New Jersey petitions Supreme Court for ruling on prediction market sports bets — gamingintelligence.com, 2026-09-03
  137. [137] Jefferies: SCOTUS Could Hear Prediction Markets Case Between November and June — Casino.org, 2026-09-03
  138. [138] Donald Trump Jr.'s Firm Pours Another $300M Into Polymarket — Casino.org, 2026-08-31
  139. [139] Fanatics rolls out unified app for sports, casino and prediction markets — gamingintelligence.com, 2026-09-03
  140. [140] Congressional Democrats Claim FanDuel VIP Program Is 'Promoting Addiction' — Casino.org, 2026-09-03
  141. [141] CFTC Orders Gabriel Perez to Pay $172,000 for Insider Trading of Mention Market Event Contracts — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), 2026-08-28
  142. [142] CFTC Exercises Emergency Authority to Ensure Market Stability — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), 2026-08-11
  143. [143] CFTC Reminds Markets to Display Clear Pricing Information — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), 2026-08-07
  144. [144] Polymarket Perps Launch With 20x Leverage, U.S. Traders Blocked — Sports Handle, 2026-09-04
  145. [145] NFL renews call on prediction markets to drop player-injury and manipulation-prone contracts — Yogonet International, 2026-09-04
  146. [146] Michigan AG secures injunction against Kalshi's sports contracts — Yogonet International, 2026-09-03
  147. [147] Report: Non-gaming apps drove mobile spending growth in Q2 as games fell 4.5% — 9to5Mac (Sensor Tower Q2 2026 Digital Market Index), 2026-08-11
  148. [148] Apple's long-running app store battle with the EU appears to finally be over — 9to5Mac, 2026-08-20
  149. [149] Epic accuses Apple of sidestepping App Store antitrust deal in Brazil — 9to5Mac, 2026-08-21
  150. [150] Apple admits it may not make any commission from alternative app stores — 9to5Mac, 2026-08-18
  151. [151] 第9回デジタル取引・特定商取引法等検討会(2026年09月02日) — 消費者庁 (Consumer Affairs Agency), 2026-09-02
  152. [152] 「MIXI GROUP統合報告書2026」発行のお知らせ — MIXI, Inc., 2026-09-01
  153. [153] MIXI、気候変動関連情報の第三者保証を取得 — MIXI, Inc., 2026-08-18
  154. [154] Ohio Sports Betting Spikes During World Cup, Operators Improve in July — Covers.com, 2026-09-02
  155. [155] New York's Weekly Sports Betting Handle Surges Above $400M to End August — Covers.com, 2026-09-04
  156. [156] Taiwan Sports Lottery reports World Cup wagers of NT$8.93 billion — gamingintelligence.com, 2026-09-04
  157. [157] Hong Kong Jockey Club questions high taxes and limited offering — gamingintelligence.com, 2026-09-03
  158. [158] Texas lawmakers consider crackdown on prediction markets — gamingintelligence.com, 2026-09-04
  159. [159] Apple may have to allow 3rd-party app payments and Apple Pay rivals in UK — 9to5Mac, 2026-06-30
  160. [160] CFTC Releases Staff Advisory on Mention Markets — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 2026-09-22
  161. [161] New York Sues Polymarket for 'Illegal Gambling Operation' — Covers.com, 2026-09-24
  162. [162] Missouri AG issues cease-and-desist letters to leading prediction markets — Gaming Intelligence, 2026-09-21
  163. [163] Connecticut takes aim at remaining prediction market platforms — Gaming Intelligence, 2026-09-11
  164. [164] Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals sides with California Tribes against Kalshi — Gaming Intelligence, 2026-09-17
  165. [165] Iowa Federal Court denies Kalshi's effort to block state gambling oversight — Gaming Intelligence, 2026-09-10
  166. [166] Crypto.com, Robinhood ask Supreme Court to settle federal-state fight over sports event contracts — Yogonet International, 2026-09-21
  167. [167] Kalshi At The Supreme Court: What Happens Next After The Ninth Circuit Split — Sports Handle, 2026-09-24
  168. [168] NFL Places Prediction Markets on Prohibited Ad List Alongside Tobacco, Firearms — Casino.org, 2026-09-16
  169. [169] NCPG takes firmer stance on prediction markets after Kalshi controversy — Yogonet International, 2026-09-23
  170. [170] DraftKings says it can benefit with or without prediction markets — Yogonet International, 2026-09-23
  171. [171] Eilers & Krejcik: Sports Contracts to Drive 80% of $190B Prediction Market Volume — Casino.org, 2026-09-18
  172. [172] Flutter Stock Could Rebound with Help from Supreme Court — Casino.org, 2026-09-24
  173. [173] Michigan Sports Betting Handle Down 2% YoY in August — Covers.com, 2026-09-22
  174. [174] GI North America Review: Week 38 2026 — Gaming Intelligence, 2026-09-18
  175. [175] デジタル取引・特定商取引法等検討会 中間取りまとめ — 消費者庁, 2026-09-10
  176. [176] Apple、Googleの令和７年度（令和８年７月27日公表）遵守報告書に対するMCF意見 — 一般社団法人モバイル・コンテンツ・フォーラム（MCF）, 2026-09-24
  177. [177] Brazil court tells Apple to add age checks for casino app purchases — 9to5Mac, 2026-09-22
  178. [178] Apple might soon make App Store changes to raise revenue, increase margins: report — 9to5Mac, 2026-09-06
  179. [179] Brazil weighs online casino ban as President Lula targets betting in reelection campaign — Yogonet International, 2026-09-23
  180. [180] Dabble fined in Australia for gambling self-exclusion breaches — Gaming Intelligence, 2026-09-16
  181. [181] Japan Gaming 2026: The Games, Strategies, and IP Defining a Global Powerhouse — Sensor Tower, 2026-09
  182. [182] 「りそなグループ B.LEAGUE 2026-27 シーズン」開幕にあたってのコミッショナーコメント — B.LEAGUE, 2026-09-22
  183. [183] CFTC Issues Warning Over 'Mention Markets' Manipulation Risk — Casino.org, 2026-09-23
  184. [184] Docket No. 26-299: Mary Jo Flaherty, Interim Director, New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement, et al., Petitioners v. KalshiEX, LLC — Supreme Court of the United States, 2026-10-02
  185. [185] Understanding Google Play's lower service fees — Google Play Console Help, 2026
  186. [186] Changes for apps in the European Union — Apple Developer, 2026-08-18
  187. [187] SBI、ビットバンクの完全子会社化を完了。新経営体制に移行 — あたらしい経済, 2026-10-01
  188. [188] Google Play手数料引き下げ、日本導入を前倒し　12月→9月中に　公取委との協議踏まえ — ITmedia NEWS, 2026-07-14
  189. [189] Cognosphere, LLC, U.S. v. — US Federal Trade Commission (FTC), 2025-01-17