What's Trending in Games
In 2026 the games actually selling are China's Honor of Kings (#1 at $1.68B in 2025), 4X-survival (Last War/Whiteout/Kingshot), merge (Gossip Harbor), Pokémon TCG Pocket, the US's Monopoly Go/Royal Match/Marvel Rivals/Roblox, India's BGMI/Free Fire, and Australia's social-casino slots. Monster Strike has banked $11.4B lifetime but now earns under a third of its peak — pushing MIXI to seek its next growth market via STRIKE WORLD (India soft-launch Feb 19, full launch Apr 16). India's RMG ban and Australia's loot-box rules are redrawing the demand map.
So What? (Implications for MIXI)
- ACTION
Deliberately de-concentrate from Monster Strike
Monster Strike has $11.4B lifetime yet earned just $570M in 2024 — under a third of peak — with 99% from Japan.[4] MIXI should front-load capital into overseas, new genres and new IP to deliberately reduce single-title, single-market risk.
- BET
Use STRIKE WORLD India to validate a global playbook
STRIKE WORLD launched in India (soft Feb 19, full Apr 16, 2026) with localized UI/progression/onboarding and pass/ad/offer billing to break gacha dependence.[5][30] Applying the lessons from Monster Strike's North America failure, whether MIXI can harvest live-ops and UA know-how on India's demographic dividend is the litmus test for its next overseas strategy.
- BET
Capture the F2P vacuum created by India's RMG ban
The 2025 RMG ban erased ~86% of segment revenue, drove out Dream11 and peers, and pushed the ~155M real-money players toward F2P/esports/casual.[20][22] STRIKE WORLD's timing coincides with this vacuum; MIXI should move fast with clean F2P, IP collabs and esports funnels to absorb the regulation-freed demand.
- WATCH
Watch digital-TCG/collection demand
Pokémon TCG Pocket (~$1.49B lifetime, $30-50M/month) proves digital pack-opening x collection pulls in new players.[8] MIXI should assess whether its IP and character assets can spawn a card/collection monetization layer.
- WATCH
- ACTION
Accelerate monetization diversification beyond gacha
As Wuthering Waves' ~$34M monthly crash shows, banner-dependent monetization is unstable, and regulatory pressure is rising (India's RMG ban, Australia's loot-box rules).[6][19] MIXI should extend the pass/ad/offer model it uses in STRIKE WORLD to Monster Strike itself to improve revenue predictability and regulatory resilience.[5]
- WATCH
Evaluate UGC/platform-shaped demand (Roblox)
Roblox hit 132M DAU and 31B hours in Q1 2026 with top creators averaging $1.3M — platform demand is expanding and US Gen-Alpha time is leaking from single games.[25] MIXI should test whether its IP fits UGC spaces and explore collab/in-platform presence.
Top risks & opportunities
-
Monster Strike's structural decline (99% Japan, under a third of peak)
E 🇯🇵 Likelihood Impact -
4X-survival strategy is the genre mass-producing top grossers
E 🌐 Likelihood Impact -
STRIKE WORLD stakes early ground in India's growth headroom
E 🇮🇳 Likelihood Impact -
India's RMG ban opens a demand vacuum and an F2P land-grab
L 🇮🇳 Likelihood Impact -
Pokémon TCG Pocket proves digital-TCG/collection demand
S 🇯🇵 Likelihood Impact -
Live-service overcrowding breeds fast shutdowns (Highguard/Concord)
T 🌐 Likelihood Impact -
Banner-driven gacha revenue volatility (Wuthering Waves crash)
E 🌐 Likelihood Impact -
Roblox's Gen-Alpha UGC-platform demand keeps expanding
S 🇺🇸 Likelihood Impact -
Extraction-shooter & premium single-player revival (ARC Raiders/Clair Obscur)
T 🌐 Likelihood Impact -
Hyper-casual/arrow puzzles capture attention and downloads
S 🇺🇸 Likelihood Impact -
IP collabs (Marvel x NetEase) extend PvP demand
S 🇺🇸 Likelihood Impact -
Australia's loot-box/casino rules constrain monetization design
L 🇦🇺 Likelihood Impact
PESTLE analysis
P Political
What you can even play — and pay in — is set by policy: India's IT Act 69A and its 2025 RMG ban reshaped the market, China is a closed ISBN-gated market holding 98% of Honor of Kings' revenue, and Australia's 2024 classification reform age-gates loot-box and casino-style titles.
- 🇮🇳 In India the prior IT Act 69A bans still define the market: Krafton's compliance-led return pushed BGMI past 100M downloads in India alone, while Garena's official 'Free Fire India' app still has not shipped — making which titles rise a direct function of policy.[13]
- 🇮🇳 The Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025 (in force Oct 1, 2025) fully bans real-money gaming; Dream11 ($8B valuation), MPL and My11Circle shut their money formats. As RMG was ~86% of India's gaming revenue, demand has been hollowed out and forced toward esports, casual and F2P — coinciding with STRIKE WORLD's entry.[20][21]
- Global #1-tier Honor of Kings (Tencent) draws ~98% of monthly revenue from Chinese iOS — a closed, ISBN-gated market that manufactures the chart leader and skews global rankings around demand foreigners cannot access.[2]
- 🇦🇺 Australia's Sept 22, 2024 classification reform rates games with paid loot boxes (chance-based spend) M (not for under-15s) and casino-style simulated gambling R18+. It applies to newly submitted or modified titles, putting the most direct policy pressure on the social-casino games atop the grossing charts.[19]
E Economic
Top grossers are Honor of Kings ($1.68B-$2.4B in 2025, estimates differ), Last War ($1.57B-$2.1B), Roblox ($4.9B annual revenue), Whiteout Survival ($1.4B), Royal Match ($1.37B), Monopoly Go ($1.36B). Japan (~$11B) is led by Pokémon TCG Pocket; Monster Strike has $11.4B lifetime yet shrank to ~$570M/year. India is a $5B market but only ~$400M IAP, hit hard by the RMG ban.
- 2025's top mobile grossers: Honor of Kings (Tencent) ~$1.68B-$2.4B, Last War (FunFly) $1.57B-$2.1B, Roblox, Whiteout Survival (Century) $1.4B, Royal Match (Dream) $1.37B, Monopoly Go (Scopely) $1.36B; rankings split by data source, with GamesIndustry-style figures putting Last War first at $2.12B. The market hit $6.75B for January 2026 alone.[3][1][31]
- 🇺🇸 The US is the single largest mobile-spend market (~31% of global as of Jan 2026); its charts are led by casual heavyweights — Monopoly Go ($174.9M in Jan 2026, atop Google Play), Last War ($162.4M), Royal Match and Candy Crush (first $1B year in 2025) — whose social hooks and live events keep outpacing legacy titles.[3][2]
- 🇺🇸 Roblox (Roblox Corp) anchors US demand as a UGC platform: FY2025 revenue $4.9B (+36%) and bookings $6.8B (+55%); Q1 2026 revenue $1.4B (+39%) with 132M DAU (+35%). North America is 28% of DAU, and the top 1,000 creators averaged $1.3M in 2025 — platform-shaped demand outscaling single titles.[25]
- 🇯🇵 Japan (~$11B IAP in 2025, #2 in Asia) is led by Pokémon TCG Pocket: since its Oct 30, 2024 global launch it has earned ~$1.49B and 100M+ downloads, books a steady $30-50M/month and lifted DeNA's Oct-Dec 2024 gaming profit +8,126% YoY. In 2025 Japan grossing put Poké TCG #1, FGO #2, Monster Strike #4 and Dragon Quest Walk #5.[8][29]
- 🇯🇵 Monster Strike has earned $11.4B gross ($8B net) over 11.5 years but 99% of that is from Japan; it peaked at $1.7B in 2016 and fell to $570.7M in 2024 — under a third of peak, making the core IP's maturity unmistakable and reallocation to overseas/new genres a board-level priority.[4]
- 🇮🇳 India is a ~$5B gaming market in 2026 (8.45B downloads, ~488M players) but with low monetization — only ~$400M IAP. The 2025 RMG ban erased ~86% of the segment's revenue and pushed out Dream11 and peers, intensifying competition for legitimate F2P/pass/ad demand; BGMI's paying users rose +17% YoY in Q1.[22][23][20]
- 🇦🇺 Australia's grossing charts are topped by social-casino/slots, with Lightning Link Casino Slots (Aristocrat's Product Madness) a local #1-tier title and Monopoly Go a fixture — a distinctly Australian tilt toward gambling-style casual demand. The 2024 classification reform is now putting a legal cap on that upside.[15][19]
S Social
Downloads are led by Block Blast, Free Fire and Roblox, with Arrows-style puzzles the new 2026 wave; the US plays Marvel Rivals (40M+)/ARC Raiders plus Roblox's Gen-Alpha base, India BGMI/Free Fire, Japan collection (Poké TCG) plus Monster Strike's New Year #1. Gacha revenue swings wildly on banner cycles.
- 🇺🇸 US/EU play centers on hero and extraction shooters: NetEase's Marvel Rivals (a Marvel collab) topped 40M players and was still actively played in June 2026 (reportedly 400K+ daily), and Embark/Nexon's ARC Raiders became a phenomenon as a brand-new IP — PvP cores paired with IP own younger demand.[28][16][11]
- 🇺🇸 Roblox is the hub of Gen-Alpha demand: among age-checked users, 35% are under 13 and 38% are 13-17. Q1 2026 logged 132M DAU and 31B hours engaged — platform-style 'playground' demand is expanding, and US attention concentrates in UGC social spaces over single games.[25]
- 🇮🇳 India's taste is battle-royale-dominant: BGMI (Krafton) cleared 100M India downloads post-return and Free Fire (Garena) ranked among the world's most-downloaded in Feb 2026 even under its ban, with low-spec-friendly Free Fire MAX owning everyday demand; after the RMG ban, BR/esports anchor the surviving demand.[13][14]
- 🇦🇺 Australian players skew to social-casino/slots, where Lightning Link-style reel spectacle and daily bonuses anchor retention — Aristocrat's slot heritage shapes mobile demand too, unlike the casual-puzzle center of gravity in the US.[15]
T Technological
Winning mechanics are 4X-survival (Last War/Whiteout/Kingshot), merge (Gossip Harbor), and extraction shooters (ARC Raiders); premium single-player (Clair Obscur/Silksong) is reviving, and STRIKE WORLD rebuilds for global with ads+pass billing to escape gacha dependence.
- The mechanic that owns spend is 4X/survival strategy: Last War and Whiteout Survival (from $936M in 2024 to $1.4B+ in 2025) top the charts, and Century Games' Kingshot launched Feb 2025 to ~$812M in its first year, ranking a top-10 grosser of 2025 — the lite-RTS x collection x PvP 'war 4X' template is now in mass-production.[3]
- Extraction shooters and premium single-player rose together: Embark's ARC Raiders cleared 16M units (an estimated $500M+) in ~six months and drove Nexon to a record Q1 2026 (North America/Europe revenue up ~310% YoY, total revenue +34% to ~$953M), while Sandfall's Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 hit 8M units and won GOTY in a year, absorbing live-service fatigue.[11][24][12]
- 🇯🇵 MIXI re-engineered tech and monetization in STRIKE WORLD (global Monster Strike): India soft-launch Feb 19, 2026, then full ops (Season 1) Apr 16. It keeps the core pull-and-fling hunt but localizes UI, progression and onboarding, and diversifies revenue with character/item passes, offer-based products and in-app ads atop gacha, plus rolling India anime IP collabs; the original has 65M downloads and $10B+ lifetime.[5][30]
L Legal
Gacha/loot boxes — the dominant monetization — and the social-casino titles atop Australia's charts sit on the front line of gambling-style regulation; India's 2025 RMG ban, Australia's 2024 classification reform and rising probability-disclosure demands are starting to select which titles and tactics can rise.
- 🇮🇳 India's Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025 fully bans real-money gaming, with fines up to ₹1 crore (~$120,000) and possible imprisonment, enforced by the Online Gaming Authority of India (OGAI); esports and social/casual are promoted. India's RMG-dependent unicorns vanished, a legal inflection point redirecting demand toward F2P.[20][21]
- 🇦🇺 Australia's Sept 2024 classification reform rates loot-box games M and casino-style simulated gambling R18+. The social-casino titles topping the charts — Lightning Link Casino Slots and peers — sit closest to age-rating and gambling-disclosure rules, with further calls for probability disclosure and bringing some titles under the gambling regime; strong demand, but a legal cap on upside.[19][15]
- Loot-box probability disclosure and predatory-monetization rules are a global, not just Australian, trend; as classification, age-gating and odds disclosure standardize, chance-dependent gacha/loot-box design loses headroom and a structural shift toward pass/offer/ad models accelerates.[19]
Timeline
- 2024-09-22 Australia reforms classification: loot-box games rated M, casino-style sims R18+
- 2025-10-01 India's Online Gaming Act 2025 takes effect; RMG ban halts Dream11/MPL money formats
- 2026-01 New Year demand: Monster Strike #1 in Japan; global market $6.75B for the month
- 2026-02-19 STRIKE WORLD soft-launches (early access) in India
- 2026-03-12 Highguard shuts down 7 weeks after launch (2026's Concord)
- 2026-04-16 STRIKE WORLD (global Monster Strike) begins full ops (Season 1) in India
- 2026-04 Arrow puzzles become April's new download wave; Gossip Harbor at $93M/month
- 2026-04-24 Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 turns one — 8M units sold and GOTY
- 2026 ARC Raiders surpasses 16M units in six months (est. $500M+, Nexon NA/EU +310%)
- 2026-Q4 Sandfall's next title, anticipated within 2026, will test premium single-player's staying power
Entities
- MIXI, Inc.Company
- Monster Strike (モンスト)Product
- STRIKE WORLDProduct
- Honor of Kings (王者荣耀)Product
- TencentCompany
- Pokémon TCG PocketProduct
- Last War: SurvivalProduct
- Whiteout SurvivalProduct
- KingshotProduct
- Monopoly GoProduct
- Royal MatchProduct
- RobloxProduct
- Marvel RivalsProduct
- ARC RaidersProduct
- NexonCompany
- Clair Obscur: Expedition 33Product
- Battlegrounds Mobile India (BGMI)Product
- KraftonCompany
- Free FireProduct
- Genshin ImpactProduct
- HoYoverseCompany
- Gossip HarborProduct
- Lightning Link Casino SlotsProduct
- Dream11Company
- Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025Regulation
- Japan mobile games marketMarket
- India mobile games marketMarket
Sources
- [1] January 2026 mobile game charts: Clash Royale falls, PUBG Mobile rises, Microfun breaks top 10 — PocketGamer.biz, 2026-02
- [2] AppMagic: Top Mobile Games by Revenue and Downloads in April 2026 — AppMagic / GameDev Reports, 2026-05
- [3] The top-grossing mobile games of 2025: Honor of Kings, Last War, Roblox and more — MobileGamer.biz, 2026-01
- [4] Monster Strike surpasses $11bn in 11 years with Japanese dominance — PocketGamer.biz, 2025-11
- [5] STRIKE WORLD: global Monster Strike officially launches in India — Saiganak News, 2026-04
- [6] The Most Profitable Gacha Games of March 2026 — Genshin fell, HSR and ZZZ rose — iXBT Games, 2026-04
- [7] The Most Profitable Gacha Games of February 2026 — Genshin Impact tops Wuthering Waves — iXBT Games, 2026-03
- [8] Pokémon TCG Pocket: Player Count, Revenue & Downloads — Udonis, 2026-05
- [9] Highguard Becomes 2026's Concord 2.0, Shutting Down 7 Weeks After Launch — The Nerd Stash, 2026-03
- [10] The best-selling and most-played Steam games at the start of 2026 — Game Rant, 2026-01
- [11] ARC Raiders Smashes Past 16 Million Sales in Six Months — Wccftech, 2026-05
- [12] Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 Anniversary Week (8M units, GOTY) — Game Rant, 2026-04
- [13] Why BGMI Made a Comeback But Free Fire India Remains Delayed — InsideSport India, 2026-02
- [14] Despite India ban, Free Fire emerges most downloaded mobile game in February — Sportskeeda, 2026-03
- [15] Top Grossing Mobile Games: Australia (Lightning Link Casino Slots, Monopoly Go) — 42matters, 2026-06
- [16] Marvel Rivals Player Count: How Many People Play in June 2026? — Beebom, 2026-06
- [17] Year-End and New Year Mobile Game Revenue Rankings: Monster Strike and FGO Dominate — Nikkei xTREND / Nikkei Gaming, 2026-02
- [18] State of Mobile Gaming in Japan 2025 — Sensor Tower, 2025-12
- [19] Australia sets new classification standards for video games with gambling and loot boxes — GamesHub, 2024-09
- [20] Online Real-Money Gaming Ban to Take Effect from Oct 1: IT Minister Vaishnaw — Outlook Business, 2025-09
- [21] As India bans real-money games, Dream Sports, MPL start pulling the plug — TechCrunch, 2025-08
- [22] Online Gaming India Statistics (2026) – Growth & Market Size — DemandSage, 2026-05
- [23] BGMI paying users climb 17% amid rise in India's in-game spending trends — Business Standard, 2026-05
- [24] Nexon Q1 Revenue Rises 34% to $953M as ARC Raiders Passes 16 Million Sales, Drives 310% Western Revenue Surge — Tech Times, 2026-05
- [25] Roblox Q1 2026 Earnings Shareholder Letter (132M DAU, $1.4B revenue) — Roblox Corporation, 2026-05
- [26] The most profitable gacha games of January 2026 — Genshin Impact in the top — iXBT Games, 2026-02
- [27] State of Gaming 2026 | PC, Console, & Mobile Trends — Sensor Tower, 2026-01
- [28] Marvel Rivals topped 40 million players before U.S. developers were laid off — Game Developer, 2026-03
- [29] Top Grossing Mobile Games: Japan (Last War, FGO, Pokémon TCG Pocket, Monster Strike) — 42matters, 2026-06
- [30] MIXI Launches Strike World in India: Monster Strike Goes Global — How2Shout, 2026-04
- [31] The Gaming Industry in 2025 by the Numbers — An Overview from GamesIndustry — Game World Observer / GamesIndustry, 2025-12